La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Osasuna Prediction - 8 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Levante

Home Team
30%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: -0.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Levante L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 2)

Osasuna L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

xG (avg) 2.21
xGA (avg) 1.06
Clean Sheets 3

Osasuna

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 1.74
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are slight favourites to take all three points, with a 45.0% chance of an away win against Levante’s 30.0% at the Ciutat de València, and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a tight contest and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite Levante sitting 19th on 33 points and fighting to escape the relegation zone, while Osasuna are comfortably mid-table in 10th with 42 points.

Match Analysis

Levante come into this with a curious mix of fragility and resilience. Their last three games show a heavy 5-1 defeat at Villarreal, a goalless draw away to Espanyol and a crucial 2-0 home win over Sevilla. That recent home clean sheet is part of a strong five-game trend: they average 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, with 3 clean sheets in that spell. The underlying numbers back this up, with 2.212 expected goals per game and only 1.058 expected against, suggesting their recent upturn isn’t a fluke. Osasuna’s form is more worrying. They’ve lost to Barcelona (2-1) and Athletic Bilbao (1-0) with a narrow home win over Sevilla (2-1) sandwiched in between. Across their last five matches they’re scoring just 0.6 goals per game and conceding 1.4, and haven’t kept a single clean sheet. Their attack has been blunt (0.94 xG per game) while their defence has been stretched (1.74 xG conceded), hinting at a side that is being pushed back and relying on moments rather than sustained pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model sides with under 2.5, with only a 42.0% probability of over 2.5 goals. Levante’s last three have produced one high-scoring game (the 6-goal loss at Villarreal) and two matches under 2.5 goals. Osasuna have been consistently low-scoring: all three of their recent fixtures finished with 3 or fewer goals, and two of them (2-1 vs Sevilla, 2-1 vs Barcelona) just edged over the line. Given Levante’s solid defensive averages and Osasuna’s modest 0.6 goals per game and sub-1.0 xG in attack, the under 2.5 prediction feels in line with the underlying trends.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.39, pointing to around nine or ten overall as the most reasonable corners prediction. Levante’s last three outings saw combined corner counts of 10, 8 and 9, showing a fairly steady pattern for a side that doesn’t dominate but does get forward in spells. Osasuna’s recent corner totals (10, 8 and 9 combined) are almost identical, reflecting a balanced approach rather than relentless wing play. With both teams creating but not swarming the opposition box, the predicted corners figure matches two fairly measured, mid-table-style game plans.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this match stands at 24.51, suggesting a match with chances but not an all-out shooting gallery. Levante’s last three produced shot totals of 32, 17 and 15 combined, while Osasuna’s saw 22, 23 and 15, which fits neatly around that expected shots mark. With Levante’s stronger recent xG and Osasuna struggling to turn shots into high-quality chances, the shots prediction points toward a game where Levante may create slightly better openings even if the overall volume is balanced.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Levante wins by X goals. Negative = Osasuna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Levante vs Osasuna with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Levante vs Osasuna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is essentially even, at -0.04 in favour of Osasuna, meaning the away side are marginally preferred but only by the finest of margins. Levante’s last three matches show a goal difference of -2 overall (1-5, 0-0, 2-0), whereas Osasuna are also at -1 over the same span (1-2, 2-1, 0-1). This expected spread lines up with the win probabilities: Osasuna have a small edge thanks to their higher league position and more stable season, but Levante’s recent defensive improvement narrows the gap significantly.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s edge comes from their league standing, slightly higher win probability and the sense they’ve been the more consistent side over the full campaign. Levante’s recent xG surge and defensive solidity, especially at home, mean this is far from a foregone conclusion. The key factor to watch will be whether Levante can maintain their improved back-line form against an Osasuna attack that has struggled to create clear chances but still carries enough threat to punish any slip in concentration.

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