Sevilla

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1462 · #13 La Liga In line Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 20 50.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.6%
Champions League 12.8%
Europa League 10.4%
Relegation 14.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Sevilla?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sevilla's results were 4.1% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketSevillaLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.1% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 65.6% 58.6%
Both teams to score 59.4% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #13 1482 1552 1462
2024-25 La Liga #17 1502 1522 1417
2023-24 La Liga #13 1471 1531 1450
2022-23 La Liga #7 1482 1561 1513
2021-22 La Liga #4 1522 1657 1615
2020-21 La Liga #4 1533 1684 1625
2019-20 La Liga #4 1559 1643 1643
2018-19 La Liga #10 1534 1608 1506
2017-18 La Liga #10 1498 1591 1528
2016-17 La Liga #5 1520 1670 1580
2015-16 La Liga #16 1502 1595 1426
2014-15 La Liga #5 1498 1651 1643

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 vs Real Madrid L Sevilla 20.8% · draw 19.2% L ✓
May 13, 2026 at Villarreal L Sevilla 14.3% · draw 15.8% W ✗
May 09, 2026 vs Espanyol W Sevilla 51.3% · draw 23.6% W ✓
May 04, 2026 vs Real Sociedad W Sevilla 37.3% · draw 25.5% W ✓
Apr 26, 2026 at Osasuna L Sevilla 14.8% · draw 16.2% L ✓
Apr 23, 2026 at Levante L Sevilla 21.8% · draw 21.4% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Atlético Madrid L Sevilla 24.9% · draw 21.8% W ✗
Apr 05, 2026 at Real Oviedo W Sevilla 37.5% · draw 25.0% L ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Valencia L Sevilla 28.6% · draw 23.9% L ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Barcelona L Sevilla 5.1% · draw 7.1% L ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/sevilla">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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