La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Villarreal Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Mallorca

Home Team
38%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
36%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Mallorca W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)

Villarreal W W D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 2

Villarreal

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca are marginally favoured at home, with a 38.0% chance of victory compared to Villarreal’s 36.0%, despite the visitors sitting much higher in La Liga (Villarreal 3rd on 68 points, Mallorca 15th on 38). The model leans towards a home win and a lively contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% probability. A draw remains a real possibility at 26.0%, underlining how finely balanced this game is.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come into this one looking steady rather than spectacular. They’ve taken four points from their last three league games: a gritty 1-0 win away at Girona, a 2-1 defeat at Alavés, and a 1-1 home draw with Valencia. The pattern is of tight matches, but the underlying numbers are encouraging: across the last five, they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with xG of 1.746 for and 1.43 against, plus two clean sheets. For a side in 15th, that’s the profile of a team trending upwards in performance, especially at home where they recently generated 20 shots against Valencia. Villarreal, in contrast, are third for a reason but have looked more volatile at the back. They hammered Levante 5-1 and edged Celta 2-1, both at home, before a laboured 1-1 draw away to bottom club Oviedo. Over their last five, they’ve only averaged 1.0 goal scored while conceding 1.6 per game, with xG of 1.494 for and 1.668 against and no clean sheets in that stretch. That suggests a side still creating decent chances but leaving the door open defensively – not ideal away from home against a Mallorca team that’s become harder to break down.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 53.0%, and there is enough evidence on both sides to support that lean. Two of Mallorca’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 at Girona, 1-1 vs Valencia), with only the 1-2 loss at Alavés going over. Villarreal have also seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (5-1 vs Levante, 2-1 vs Celta), with only the 1-1 at Oviedo staying under 2.5. With Mallorca averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Villarreal at 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, backed by xG figures that point to both sides regularly creating chances, the balance tips slightly towards goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.07 total corners, which fits with recent trends. Mallorca’s last three games have produced 9, 13 and 11 total corners respectively, reflecting a side that can both force and concede set-piece situations: they’ve had 2–5, 4–9 and 7–4 corner counts. Villarreal matches have been similarly active, with 10, 12 and 7 total corners (7–3 vs Levante, 7–5 vs Celta, 0–7 at Oviedo). With both teams willing to attack the wide areas, the predicted corners figure around ten feels appropriate.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 26.16 expected shots in total, which matches how these sides have been playing. Mallorca’s last three have seen them involved in games with 22, 19 and 30 shots, and they fired 20 attempts at Valencia at home, suggesting they won’t be shy in front of goal here. Villarreal’s recent fixtures show 32, 22 and 23 total shots, with strong attacking volumes in their home matches. Combined with xG averages around 1.5 for each side, the expected shots number points to an open contest with both goalkeepers kept busy.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Mallorca wins by X goals. Negative = Villarreal wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Mallorca vs Villarreal with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Mallorca vs Villarreal
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.15 (home minus away), meaning the model very slightly favours Villarreal on pure goal difference even though the headline result tilts towards Mallorca. Recently, Mallorca’s last three games show a neutral overall goal difference (3 scored, 3 conceded), while Villarreal are +3 over the same span (8 for, 5 against), inflated by that 5-1 win over Levante. Given Villarreal’s stronger league position and attacking bursts but Mallorca’s better recent defensive metrics, the expected spread being close to zero underlines how tight this game is likely to be.

Final Prediction

Mallorca’s edge comes from their recent defensive solidity and home form, backed by strong xG numbers, against a Villarreal side that has been leaking chances despite sitting third. Villarreal’s attacking threat means they are never out of any game, but their lack of clean sheets leaves the door open for the hosts. The key factor to watch will be how Villarreal’s back line copes with sustained pressure if Mallorca reproduce the shot volume they showed against Valencia.

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