La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Alaves Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oviedo

Home Team
36%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
37%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Oviedo L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)

Alaves W D L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 1

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.72
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are marginally favoured to take all three points, with a 37.0% chance of an away win against Oviedo’s 36.0% at the bottom of La Liga. The draw sits at 26.0%, underlining how finely balanced this relegation fight is between 16th‑placed Alavés (40 points) and rock‑bottom Oviedo in 20th (29 points). The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (51% vs 49% for over), suggesting a tight, cagey contest.

Match Analysis

Oviedo’s form remains grim: two defeats and a draw in their last three, without scoring a single goal (0-2 at Real Madrid, 0-0 vs Getafe, 0-3 at Betis). They have at least shown flashes of competitiveness — out‑shooting Betis 17-10 and limiting Real Madrid to just two goals away — but their lack of cutting edge is glaring. Over the last five matches they are averaging only 0.8 goals scored, against 0.6 conceded, with xG of 1.304 for and 1.322 against, which hints that their performances are slightly better than results but still modest in both boxes. Alavés arrive with more punch but less defensive control: a statement 1-0 win over Barcelona, a 1-1 draw at Elche, then a wild 2-4 home loss to Athletic Bilbao. That run (W-D-L) mirrors their broader profile: they’ve hit 2.2 goals per game over the last five, but shipped 2.4 at the other end, with xG figures of 1.716 for and 1.824 against. In other words, they create more and concede more than Oviedo, which aligns with the narrow away edge and the almost even call between over and under 2.5.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction comes despite a 49.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, reflecting just how tight this line is. Two of Oviedo’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-0, 0-0, 3-0 totals), but crucially they’ve failed to score in all three, and their 0.8 goals scored per game with 1.304 xG for suggests limited firepower. Alavés have seen two of their last three go under (1-0, 1-1, 2-4), and while they average 2.2 scored and 2.4 conceded with xG of 1.716 for and 1.824 against, the stakes and Oviedo’s low‑scoring profile tilt this towards under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.37 total corners, a mid‑range figure that fits both sides’ recent numbers. Oviedo’s last three have produced 9, 10 and 9 total corners respectively, while Alavés’ games have seen 10, 10 and 11, showing a fairly consistent supply without becoming corner-fests. With Alavés slightly more attacking and Oviedo often forced to defend deep, the predicted corners total suggests a game where both sides generate pressure without relentlessly camping in the opposition box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.36, again indicating a reasonably open but not frantic match. Oviedo’s last three outings have involved 28, 30 and 27 total shots, while Alavés have seen 17, 28 and 16, so the shots prediction sits just under their recent upper range. That aligns with the xG profiles: Alavés’ higher attacking xG (1.716) hints they may create the better looks, while Oviedo’s 1.304 suggests volume without consistent quality.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oviedo wins by X goals. Negative = Alaves wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oviedo vs Alaves with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oviedo vs Alaves
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is essentially even at -0.03 (home minus away), ever so slightly favouring Alavés. Oviedo’s recent goal differences of -2, 0 and -3 highlight their struggle to stay competitive on the scoreboard, even when the shot count is close or in their favour. Alavés, with results of +1, 0 and -2, have been more capable of both scoring and conceding, and that balance, combined with the near‑even expected spread, matches the tiny away advantage in the win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Alavés have the edge through their sharper attack and slightly stronger recent results, even if the margins are wafer‑thin. Oviedo’s survival hopes rest on finally turning decent xG into goals, while trying to keep Alavés’ lively front line under control. The key factor to watch will be whether Oviedo can break their scoring drought early; if they don’t, Alavés’ extra firepower should eventually tell.

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