Real Madrid

La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1656 · #2 La Liga In line Updated May 17, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #2 of 20 64.1 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 17.5%
Champions League 59.5%
Europa League 14.4%
Relegation 0.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Real Madrid?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Real Madrid's results were 9.8% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.

MarketReal MadridLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 68.8% 51.1%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.6%
Both teams to score 56.2% 56.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 La Liga #2 1518 1715 1656
2024-25 La Liga #2 1502 1680 1678
2023-24 La Liga #1 1533 1801 1784
2022-23 La Liga #4 1529 1684 1595
2021-22 La Liga #1 1534 1733 1692
2020-21 La Liga #1 1502 1730 1730
2019-20 La Liga #1 1533 1740 1732
2018-19 La Liga #7 1520 1634 1523
2017-18 La Liga #2 1534 1680 1652
2016-17 La Liga #2 1534 1751 1751
2015-16 La Liga #1 1502 1766 1766
2014-15 La Liga #2 1520 1746 1746

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Sevilla W Real Madrid 60.1% · draw 19.2% W ✓
May 14, 2026 vs Real Oviedo W Real Madrid 82.8% · draw 9.7% W ✓
May 10, 2026 at Barcelona L Real Madrid 23.7% · draw 20.6% L ✓
May 03, 2026 at Espanyol W Real Madrid 62.6% · draw 18.2% W ✓
Apr 24, 2026 at Real Betis W Real Madrid 54.7% · draw 21.3% D ✗
Apr 21, 2026 vs Alaves W Real Madrid 85.3% · draw 8.4% W ✓
Apr 10, 2026 vs Girona W Real Madrid 81.1% · draw 10.5% D ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Mallorca W Real Madrid 61.7% · draw 18.5% L ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs Atlético Madrid W Real Madrid 64.6% · draw 17.8% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Elche W Real Madrid 85.9% · draw 8.1% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/real-madrid">La Liga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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