Real Madrid
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#5 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 20 74.6 expected pts · currently 18 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 20 in La Liga 86 pts · 27W-5D-6L · GD +42
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Real Madrid?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Real Madrid's results were 9.0% easier to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Real Madrid | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 66.7% | 51.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 58.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 55.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #4 | 1531 | 1577 | 1572 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #2 | 1518 | 1715 | 1656 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #2 | 1502 | 1680 | 1678 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #1 | 1533 | 1801 | 1784 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #4 | 1529 | 1684 | 1595 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #1 | 1534 | 1733 | 1692 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #1 | 1502 | 1730 | 1730 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #1 | 1533 | 1740 | 1732 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #7 | 1520 | 1634 | 1523 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #2 | 1534 | 1680 | 1652 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #2 | 1534 | 1751 | 1751 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #1 | 1502 | 1766 | 1766 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #2 | 1520 | 1746 | 1746 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W Real Madrid 72.6% · draw 16.2% | W ✓ |
| Sep 20, 2026 | at Atlético Madrid | W Real Madrid 47.2% · draw 24.7% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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