La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Espanol Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sevilla

Home Team
51%
VS

Espanol

Away Team
25%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Sevilla W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)

Espanol L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 0.87
Clean Sheets 1

Espanol

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 2.27
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Sevilla are marginal favourites at home, with a 51.0% chance of victory compared to Espanol’s 25.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a tight home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both sides sitting in the bottom half: Sevilla are 17th on 37 points, one behind 13th-placed Espanol on 39. With both clubs hovering just above the relegation zone, the stakes could hardly be higher.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this with a mixed recent run: a vital 1-0 home win over Sociedad, sandwiched between away defeats at Osasuna (1-2) and Levante (0-2). At home, though, that Sociedad result underlined their ability to control a game; they limited the visitors to just six shots while firing 19 of their own. Over the last five matches, Sevilla have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by solid underlying numbers: 0.998 xG for and only 0.868 xG against per game, plus one clean sheet. Espanol’s form has dipped, with two defeats and a draw in their last three: 0-2 to Real Madrid, 0-0 against Levante and a narrow 0-1 loss away to Vallecano. The worrying sign is at the back: they are conceding 1.8 goals per game over their last five, with a hefty 2.27 xG against on average, suggesting opponents are creating plenty. They’re not totally blunt going forward – 0.8 goals and 1.028 xG per game show they can threaten – but recent scorelines underline a team struggling to convert pressure into goals and points.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 prediction, with only a 44.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, and even suggests “no goal” is slightly likelier than both scoring. Recent results support the under: 2 of Sevilla’s last 3 have finished below 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Sociedad, 0-2 vs Levante), and all 3 of Espanol’s most recent games have gone under (0-2, 0-0, 0-1). With Sevilla averaging exactly 1.0 goal scored and conceded, and Espanol at 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, plus both sides’ xG numbers hovering around 1.0 in attack, a low-scoring, cagey contest looks more likely than a shoot-out for the over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.39, pointing towards a moderate corners prediction rather than an extreme outlier. Sevilla’s last three have produced 6, 8 and 9 corners (3-3, 4-4, 6-3), while Espanol’s have generated 11, 8 and 11 (5-6, 4-4, 5-6), showing both sides consistently around that mid-range mark. With Sevilla likely to push at home but neither team playing ultra-high tempo, an expected corners tally around 9–10 fits their recent pattern.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.73, which aligns well with recent figures. Sevilla’s last three matches have seen 25, 23 and 15 total shots, while Espanol’s have produced 32, 17 and 32, indicating that games involving these two generally fall in the low-to-mid 20s or slightly higher. That shots prediction also matches the xG profiles: both teams typically create around one expected goal per game, suggesting a reasonable number of attempts but not constant end-to-end chaos in the expected shots count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sevilla wins by X goals. Negative = Espanol wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sevilla vs Espanol with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sevilla vs Espanol
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction favours Sevilla by 0.6 goals, reflecting their status as slight home favourites. Over the last three, Sevilla’s goal difference is -2 (1 scored, 4 conceded), while Espanol’s is -3 (0 scored, 3 conceded) – neither side is flying, but Sevilla at least have that clean-sheet home win to lean on. With the home win probability at 51.0% and Espanol’s defence allowing 1.8 goals per game and 2.27 xG against, the expected spread of Sevilla by just over half a goal feels consistent with both the numbers and the table.

Final Prediction

Sevilla’s edge comes from home advantage and marginally stronger defensive metrics, especially in terms of chances allowed. Espanol’s porous back line and recent scoring drought away from home tilt the balance towards the hosts in a tight, nervy encounter. A key factor to watch will be whether Sevilla can turn their territorial and shooting edge into an early goal, forcing Espanol to open up and chase the game.

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