Rayo Vallecano
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #7 of 20 52.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 20 in La Liga 50 pts · 12W–14D–12L · GD -3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Rayo Vallecano?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Rayo Vallecano's results were 14.0% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Rayo Vallecano | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.8% | 51.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 58.6% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 56.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #6 | 1533 | 1533 | 1533 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #9 | 1529 | 1548 | 1526 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #16 | 1533 | 1561 | 1393 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | #16 | 1502 | 1557 | 1439 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #19 | 1478 | 1559 | 1380 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #6 | 1584 | 1606 | 1552 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #2 | 1556 | 1603 | 1568 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #19 | 1466 | 1500 | 1379 |
| 2017-18 | Segunda División | #3 | 1529 | 1690 | 1576 |
| 2015-16 | La Liga | #14 | 1498 | 1500 | 1442 |
| 2014-15 | La Liga | #11 | 1498 | 1508 | 1458 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Villarreal | L Rayo Vallecano 30.3% · draw 24.4% | W ✗ |
| May 14, 2026 | at Valencia | L Rayo Vallecano 30.6% · draw 25.5% | D ✗ |
| May 11, 2026 | vs Girona | W Rayo Vallecano 54.5% · draw 22.2% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Getafe | W Rayo Vallecano 38.0% · draw 25.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W Rayo Vallecano 46.2% · draw 24.3% | D ✗ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Espanyol | W Rayo Vallecano 59.4% · draw 20.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Mallorca | L Rayo Vallecano 33.0% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Elche | W Rayo Vallecano 64.5% · draw 18.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Barcelona | L Rayo Vallecano 7.5% · draw 9.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vs Levante | W Rayo Vallecano 69.1% · draw 16.1% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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