La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Real Madrid Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sevilla

Home Team
21%
VS

Real Madrid

Away Team
60%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: -0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Sevilla W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)

Real Madrid W L W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 0.67
Clean Sheets 1

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are favored to take all three points in Seville, with a 60.0% probability of an away win against just 21.0% for Sevilla and 19.0% for the draw. The model points to an “over 2.5” goals prediction at 51.0% likelihood, suggesting a relatively open game. In the table, Madrid come in as strong title challengers in 2nd place on 80 points, while Sevilla sit 12th with 43 points, still in mid-table traffic.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this with momentum: three wins from their last three matches – 3-2 at Villarreal, then 2-1 over Espanyol and 1-0 against Real Sociedad at home. They’ve tightened up at the back compared with their earlier season form, conceding just three goals across those games, while creating plenty of chances (13, 21 and 19 shots respectively). Over the last five matches they average 1.2 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, backed by 1.212 xG for and a very solid 0.67 xG against, underlining a side that is suddenly more compact and efficient. Real Madrid’s last three outings show a more mixed picture: a professional 2-0 home win over Oviedo, a 0-2 defeat away to leaders Barcelona, and a controlled 2-0 victory at Espanyol. Defensively, two clean sheets in three is encouraging, but their five-game numbers are more balanced: 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, with xG for at 1.062 and xG against at 1.156, suggesting they allow almost as much as they create. Even so, their superior league position and squad depth make them clear favorites, especially against a Sevilla side that has been inconsistent over the full season.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, and the recent pattern supports the idea of goals. Two of Sevilla’s last three have gone over 2.5 (3-2 vs Villarreal, 2-1 vs Espanyol), with only the 1-0 against Sociedad finishing under 2.5. Madrid, by contrast, have seen all of their last three finish under 2.5 (2-0, 0-2, 2-0), but the combined averages – both teams at 1.2 goals scored per game, plus Sevilla’s strong xG for and Madrid’s tendency to concede chances (1.156 xG against) – point to a tight line that can be edged towards goals rather than a cagey stalemate.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match stands at 9.96, which fits neatly with the recent numbers. Sevilla’s last three games produced 10, 10 and 6 corners, while Madrid’s delivered 9, 12 and 11, all in the same ballpark as this corners prediction. With both teams generally on the front foot – Sevilla firing in 13, 21 and 19 shots, Madrid 19, 8 and 15 – the predicted corners tally reflects two sides that attack down the flanks and sustain pressure in the final third.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this clash is 25.87 in total, a figure well aligned with recent output. Sevilla alone have racked up 13, 21 and 19 efforts in their last three, while Madrid have posted 19, 8 and 15, consistently taking and allowing a fair amount of attempts. This shots prediction also fits with the xG data: both teams around 1.1–1.2 xG for recently, which typically requires a decent volume of shots to reach those expected levels.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sevilla wins by X goals. Negative = Real Madrid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sevilla vs Real Madrid with expected spread of -0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sevilla vs Real Madrid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.75 (home – away), meaning Madrid are expected to win by roughly three-quarters of a goal on average. That aligns with their 60.0% win probability and Sevilla’s lower 21.0%, despite the hosts’ recent three-game winning run. Sevilla’s last three show a combined goal difference of +3, Madrid’s +2, but over the season Madrid’s superior attack (72 scored vs Sevilla’s 46) and better defence (33 conceded vs 58) justify an expected spread that leans clearly towards the away side.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s overall quality, league standing and greater consistency over the season give them the edge, even against a Sevilla team that has rediscovered some form. The key factor to watch will be how Sevilla’s recently improved defence – backed by that impressive 0.67 xG conceded over five games – copes with Madrid’s attacking weight; if it holds, this could be tighter than the odds suggest, but the away side still carry the clearer path to victory.

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