La Liga 2025-2026: Valencia vs Vallecano Prediction - 14 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valencia

Home Team
44%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
31%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Valencia W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 1)

Vallecano D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 1

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.33
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are narrowly favoured at Mestalla, with a 44.0% chance of victory against Vallecano’s 31.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw pointing towards a tight contest. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for over, so only a slight tilt to the low‑scoring side) in a meeting of mid‑table neighbours: Vallecano sit 10th on 43 points, Valencia 12th on 42.

Match Analysis

Valencia come in on a modest upswing: two wins from their last three, beating Girona 2-1 and grinding out a 1-0 away win at Athletic Bilbao, bookended by a 0-2 home defeat to Atlético Madrid. They’ve shown both sides of their character – resilient in tight games, but still vulnerable against more clinical opposition. Over their last five matches they’re averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG figures (1.528 for, 1.306 against) suggesting they’re creating slightly more than they allow, yet only one clean sheet underlines lingering fragility at the back. Vallecano’s recent form has been stubborn rather than spectacular: two high‑energy home draws (1-1 vs Girona, 3-3 vs Sociedad) wrapped around a disciplined 2-0 away win at Getafe. The results show they’re hard to beat, but the underlying numbers warn of defensive strain. Over the last five games they’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored but 1.2 conceded, while their xG tells a different story: 1.326 for and a worrying 1.822 against. They’re creating plenty, but opponents are repeatedly finding good shooting positions, which could tilt a finely balanced game toward a more efficient Valencia.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5 despite only a 48.0% probability for over 2.5, hinting at a cagey, low‑margin contest. Two of Valencia’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Bilbao, 0-2 vs Atlético), with only the 2-1 win over Girona going over. Vallecano, by contrast, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-3 vs Sociedad, 2-0 vs Getafe, 1-1 vs Girona under), but their five‑game averages of 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus Valencia’s xG edge, support the under 2.5 prediction as the more plausible base case.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at a healthy 10.0 total, in line with how both sides have been playing. Valencia’s last three games produced 9, 8 and 8 corners respectively, while Vallecano’s yielded 14, 5 and 10 – a combined pattern that comfortably supports double‑figure predicted corners. With Vallecano often on the front foot at home (18 shots and 9 corners vs Girona, 24 shots and 6 corners vs Sociedad) and Valencia capable of sustained spells at Mestalla, both teams’ direct, box‑oriented approach should drive up the corner count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.06, which fits the recent evidence. Valencia’s matches have seen 21, 32 and 19 shots in their last three, while Vallecano’s have been more open, with 27, 23 and a remarkable 37 efforts. This shots prediction lines up well with Vallecano’s xG profile (1.326 for, 1.822 against), suggesting plenty of efforts from both sides even if finishing remains mixed.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valencia wins by X goals. Negative = Vallecano wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valencia vs Vallecano with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valencia vs Vallecano
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Valencia -0.22, indicating the home side are only slight favourites rather than clear dominators. Across their last three, Valencia hold a modest +0 goal difference (3 scored, 3 conceded), while Vallecano sit at 0 as well (6 scored, 6 conceded), underlining how evenly matched these sides are on current form. That small expected spread mirrors the 44.0% home‑win probability and points to Valencia’s marginally better attacking output and xG balance as the difference.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s narrow attacking edge, stronger recent results and home advantage give them a slight upper hand against a Vallecano side that creates plenty but concedes too many chances. The key factor to watch will be how Valencia handle Vallecano’s volume of shots: if the hosts stay compact and ruthlessly finish the few big chances they carve out, that slim predicted margin could be enough.

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