La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Sevilla Prediction - 13 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Villarreal

Home Team
70%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Villarreal D W W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)

Sevilla W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

xG (avg) 2.59
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 0

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.71
xGA (avg) 1.90
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are clear favourites at home, with a 70.0% chance of victory against a Sevilla side given just a 14.0% probability, and a 16.0% chance of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction on goals, suggesting an open game. In the table, Villarreal sit 3rd on 69 points and chasing the Champions League spots, while 13th-placed Sevilla are safely mid-table on 40 points but far from their usual top-end standards.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come into this one in strong form: two home wins (5-1 vs Levante, 2-1 vs Celta) and a 1-1 draw away at Mallorca. They’ve looked particularly dangerous at La Cerámica, scoring seven goals in their last two home outings and consistently winning the corner and shot battles. Over their last five matches they’ve averaged 2.8 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, backed up by an impressive 2.588 expected goals for and 1.454 against, even if they’ve not kept a clean sheet in that stretch. Sevilla’s recent run is more mixed: back-to-back home wins over Espanyol (2-1) and Sociedad (1-0) were followed by a 2-1 defeat away at Osasuna. Performances hint at vulnerability – they’ve allowed 2.4 goals per game on average in their last five, while scoring only 1.0. The advanced metrics are even more worrying: just 0.706 xG created per game against 1.896 xG conceded, underlining a side that struggles to consistently threaten and gives up plenty of chances, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 53.0%, with the numbers tilting towards a match with goals. Two of Villarreal’s last three have gone over 2.5 (5-1 vs Levante, 2-1 vs Celta), with only the 1-1 at Mallorca staying under. Sevilla have seen two of their last three end under 2.5 (1-0 vs Sociedad, 1-2 vs Osasuna), but their porous defence – 2.4 goals conceded on average and 1.896 xG against – combined with Villarreal’s 2.8 scored per game and strong 2.588 xG suggests there should be enough attacking quality from the hosts to push this over the line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.06 total corners, roughly in line with what these teams have produced lately. Villarreal’s last three matches have seen corner totals of 9, 10 and 12, reflecting an assertive, front-foot style at home that regularly pins opponents back. Sevilla’s recent games have produced 10, 6 and 8 corners; they concede territory and allow opponents to rack up set pieces, so the predicted corners figure fits two sides who attack, but with Sevilla less dominant away from home.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 24.15, consistent with both teams’ recent trends. Villarreal have generated 7, 20 and 13 shots in their last three, while allowing 18, 12 and 9, showing their games tend to be relatively open. Sevilla, meanwhile, have produced 21 and 19 shots in their two recent home wins but only 8 away at Osasuna, with opponents firing 10, 6 and 15. Given Villarreal’s high xG numbers, the shots prediction supports the idea of the hosts creating the bulk of the chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Villarreal wins by X goals. Negative = Sevilla wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Villarreal vs Sevilla with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Villarreal vs Sevilla
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Villarreal -0.97, signalling an expectation that the home side win by roughly a goal. Recent scorelines support that expected spread: Villarreal are +6 on goal difference across their last three (8 scored, 3 conceded), while Sevilla are level at 4-4, boosted by home wins but hurt by that away loss. With Villarreal’s potent attack and Sevilla’s tendency to concede heavily over their last five games, the spread aligns neatly with the 70.0% home-win probability.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s sharper attack, stronger underlying numbers and superior league position give them a clear edge, especially at home where they’ve been ruthless. Sevilla’s low xG output and leaky defence make it difficult to see them controlling the contest. The key factor to watch will be how often Villarreal can get bodies into the box and turn their sustained pressure into goals against a Sevilla back line that has struggled to hold firm.

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