League One 2026-2027: Blackpool vs Plymouth Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Blackpool

Home Team
34%
VS

Plymouth

Away Team
35%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.8
Expected Shots: 28.1
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Plymouth

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Blackpool
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.6 Plymouth
Defense +3.9 Plymouth
Results & dominance +3.9 Plymouth

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Plymouth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Blackpool defense +2.5 Over
Plymouth defense +1.4 Over
Plymouth attack & chance creation +1.3 Over
Form & results +1.3 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 6 4 1 1 13 6 7 13
2 Huddersfield 6 3 3 0 10 4 6 12
3 Bradford 6 4 0 2 6 4 2 12
4 Cambridge 6 3 2 1 11 9 2 11
5 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
6 Oxford 5 3 1 1 12 6 6 10
7 Plymouth 6 3 1 2 10 8 2 10
8 Stockport 6 3 0 3 16 10 6 9
9 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
10 Blackpool 6 2 2 2 11 9 2 8
11 Burton 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
13 Leicester 6 2 2 2 8 10 -2 8
14 Reading 5 2 1 2 12 7 5 7
15 Leyton Orient 6 2 1 3 12 9 3 7
16 Notts County 6 1 4 1 7 7 0 7
17 Mansfield 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
18 Barnsley 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
19 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
20 Wycombe 6 1 3 2 10 14 -4 6
21 Peterboro 6 1 2 3 4 10 -6 5
22 Bromley 6 1 2 3 6 17 -11 5
23 Wigan 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
24 Doncaster 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Blackpool D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Bromley (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Reading (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barnsley (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Peterboro (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Stockport (Goals: 2 - 1)

Plymouth W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Barnsley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leicester (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bradford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Wycombe (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Blackpool

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Plymouth

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Blackpool a 34% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Plymouth at 35%. This is a tight call, with Plymouth only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 57% of cases.

Match Analysis

Blackpool arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Plymouth arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWLWD from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Blackpool sit 10th with 8 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +2, while Plymouth are 7th with 10 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Plymouth 2 points clear of their opponent. Blackpool average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Plymouth average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Blackpool), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.6 points toward Plymouth), defense (3.9 points toward Plymouth). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Blackpool
Goals in last 5 matches
Plymouth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Blackpool matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Plymouth matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 57%, no goal for at least one side at 43%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Blackpool defense pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Blackpool
Corners in last 5 matches
Plymouth
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Blackpool
Shots in last 5 matches
Plymouth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Blackpool wins by X goals. Negative = Plymouth wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Blackpool vs Plymouth with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Blackpool vs Plymouth
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.0 goals in favour of Blackpool. The spread model gives 23% to a Blackpool win by two goals or more and 43% to any Plymouth win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Plymouth win (35%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (57%). Expected totals: 10.8 corners and 28.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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