Plymouth

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1599 · #3 League One 6W-1D-3L · 19 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #1 of 24 77.2 expected pts · currently 19 pts after 10 matches

League title 20.6%
Promotion 48.7%
Automatic promotion 36.9%
Promotion playoffs 39.6%
Relegation 0.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Plymouth?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Plymouth's results were 7.1% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketPlymouthLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 63.4% 53.2%
Both teams to score 56.1% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #3 1545 1608 1599
2025-26 League One #4 1467 1620 1620
2024-25 Championship #15 1442 1493 1483
2023-24 Championship #18 1430 1504 1444
2022-23 League One #2 1573 1710 1684
2021-22 League One #10 1390 1624 1561
2020-21 League One #23 1451 1548 1372
2019-20 League Two #2 1606 1651 1626
2018-19 League One #19 1501 1522 1416
2017-18 League One #7 1436 1631 1536
2016-17 League Two #3 1497 1662 1596
2015-16 League Two #9 1564 1666 1538
2014-15 League Two #9 1440 1574 1548
2013-14 League Two #18 1469 1564 1442
2012-13 League Two #13 1453 1533 1489
2011-12 League Two #16 1506 1510 1473
2010-11 League One #19 1539 1539 1440
2009-10 Championship #23 1431 1473 1367
2008-09 Championship #23 1482 1555 1410
2007-08 Championship #13 1538 1574 1478
2006-07 Championship #12 1471 1568 1517
2005-06 Championship #16 1529 1529 1465

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs AFC Wimbledon W Plymouth 65.2% · draw 22.3% W ✓
Oct 03, 2026 at Leyton Orient W Plymouth 40.7% · draw 28.5% W ✓
Sep 26, 2026 vs Burton W Plymouth 58.2% · draw 24.6% L ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Blackpool W Plymouth 35.4% · draw 30.6% W ✓
Sep 12, 2026 vs Barnsley W Plymouth 40.5% · draw 30.9% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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