Plymouth
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 24 in League One 73 pts · 22W–7D–17L · GD +12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Plymouth?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Plymouth's results were 7.1% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Plymouth | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.5% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #4 | 1467 | 1620 | 1620 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #15 | 1442 | 1493 | 1483 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #18 | 1430 | 1504 | 1444 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #2 | 1573 | 1710 | 1684 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #10 | 1390 | 1624 | 1561 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #23 | 1451 | 1548 | 1372 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #2 | 1606 | 1651 | 1626 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #19 | 1501 | 1522 | 1416 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #7 | 1436 | 1631 | 1536 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #3 | 1497 | 1662 | 1596 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #9 | 1564 | 1666 | 1538 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #9 | 1440 | 1574 | 1548 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #18 | 1469 | 1564 | 1442 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #13 | 1453 | 1533 | 1489 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #16 | 1506 | 1510 | 1473 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #19 | 1539 | 1539 | 1440 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #23 | 1431 | 1473 | 1367 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #23 | 1482 | 1555 | 1410 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #13 | 1538 | 1574 | 1478 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #12 | 1471 | 1568 | 1517 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #16 | 1529 | 1529 | 1465 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Northampton | W Plymouth 57.1% · draw 22.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Port Vale | W Plymouth 67.5% · draw 19.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Bradford | L Plymouth 29.3% · draw 31.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at AFC Wimbledon | W Plymouth 44.3% · draw 28.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Exeter | W Plymouth 58.0% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Barnsley | L Plymouth 34.3% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Bolton | L Plymouth 28.6% · draw 28.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Huddersfield | W Plymouth 34.6% · draw 31.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Stevenage | W Plymouth 36.1% · draw 31.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Reading | L Plymouth 33.3% · draw 31.3% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/plymouth">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/plymouth">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>