League One 2026-2027: Burton vs Mansfield Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burton

Home Team
38%
VS

Mansfield

Away Team
32%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Burton

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Burton
Results & dominance +2.8 Mansfield
Attack +2.3 Mansfield
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Mansfield

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Burton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Burton attack & chance creation +4.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Mansfield defense +1.9 Over
Mansfield attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 6 4 1 1 13 6 7 13
2 Huddersfield 6 3 3 0 10 4 6 12
3 Bradford 6 4 0 2 6 4 2 12
4 Cambridge 6 3 2 1 11 9 2 11
5 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
6 Oxford 5 3 1 1 12 6 6 10
7 Plymouth 6 3 1 2 10 8 2 10
8 Stockport 6 3 0 3 16 10 6 9
9 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
10 Blackpool 6 2 2 2 11 9 2 8
11 Burton 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
13 Leicester 6 2 2 2 8 10 -2 8
14 Reading 5 2 1 2 12 7 5 7
15 Leyton Orient 6 2 1 3 12 9 3 7
16 Notts County 6 1 4 1 7 7 0 7
17 Mansfield 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
18 Barnsley 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
19 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
20 Wycombe 6 1 3 2 10 14 -4 6
21 Peterboro 6 1 2 3 4 10 -6 5
22 Bromley 6 1 2 3 6 17 -11 5
23 Wigan 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
24 Doncaster 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Burton L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Oxford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cambridge (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs AFC Wimbledon (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Notts County (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leicester (Goals: 2 - 1)

Mansfield D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Huddersfield (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bradford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Reading (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Luton (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Peterboro (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burton

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 0

Mansfield

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Burton a 38% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Mansfield at 32%. This is a tight call, with Burton only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Burton arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWLW from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. Mansfield arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLLWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Burton sit 11th with 8 points from 6 games and a level goal difference, while Mansfield are 17th with 7 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Burton 1 point clear of their opponent. Burton average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Mansfield average 0.3 scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Burton), results & dominance (2.8 points toward Mansfield), attack (2.3 points toward Mansfield). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burton
Goals in last 5 matches
Mansfield
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Burton matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Mansfield matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, Burton attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 4.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burton
Corners in last 5 matches
Mansfield
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burton
Shots in last 5 matches
Mansfield
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burton wins by X goals. Negative = Mansfield wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burton vs Mansfield with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burton vs Mansfield
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Burton. The spread model gives 23% to a Burton win by two goals or more and 43% to any Mansfield win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Burton win (38%), Under 2.5 (55%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 23.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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