Mansfield
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #10 of 24 in League One 65 pts · 16W–17D–13L · GD +12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Mansfield?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Mansfield's results were 13.8% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Mansfield | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 29.3% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #5 | 1482 | 1599 | 1599 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #20 | 1529 | 1584 | 1414 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #4 | 1565 | 1701 | 1608 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #6 | 1540 | 1644 | 1581 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #6 | 1565 | 1643 | 1577 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #7 | 1470 | 1564 | 1550 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #17 | 1512 | 1540 | 1464 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #13 | 1540 | 1661 | 1510 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #10 | 1517 | 1631 | 1528 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #9 | 1524 | 1576 | 1521 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #14 | 1438 | 1538 | 1506 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #22 | 1482 | 1508 | 1357 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #12 | 1389 | 1557 | 1498 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #21 | 1442 | 1460 | 1376 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #19 | 1479 | 1534 | 1422 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #15 | 1502 | 1558 | 1468 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Cardiff | L Mansfield 20.6% · draw 24.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | at Peterboro | L Mansfield 33.7% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Huddersfield | L Mansfield 26.7% · draw 28.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Stockport | L Mansfield 22.0% · draw 27.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Luton | L Mansfield 32.5% · draw 30.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Leyton Orient | L Mansfield 33.0% · draw 31.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Wigan | L Mansfield 31.3% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Burton | W Mansfield 43.7% · draw 29.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Doncaster | L Mansfield 29.9% · draw 31.8% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Northampton | W Mansfield 60.3% · draw 23.2% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/mansfield">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/league_one"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="League One title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/mansfield">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>