Burton
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #15 of 24 58.4 expected pts · currently 12 pts after 10 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 24 in League One 54 pts · 13W-15D-18L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Burton?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Burton's results were 14.9% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Burton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 31.7% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League One | #14 | 1457 | 1502 | 1463 |
| 2025-26 | League One | #15 | 1518 | 1544 | 1463 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #12 | 1375 | 1493 | 1481 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #22 | 1525 | 1556 | 1361 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #9 | 1413 | 1557 | 1550 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #19 | 1541 | 1575 | 1401 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #10 | 1475 | 1567 | 1525 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #11 | 1492 | 1551 | 1481 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #7 | 1528 | 1591 | 1530 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #20 | 1455 | 1484 | 1421 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #16 | 1480 | 1512 | 1474 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #7 | 1495 | 1670 | 1577 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #1 | 1548 | 1684 | 1684 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #11 | 1564 | 1610 | 1519 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #3 | 1384 | 1617 | 1576 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #23 | 1464 | 1569 | 1370 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #18 | 1476 | 1501 | 1449 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #12 | 1481 | 1551 | 1475 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/burton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/burton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>