Burton
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 24 in League One 54 pts · 13W–15D–18L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Burton?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Burton's results were 14.9% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Burton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 31.7% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #15 | 1518 | 1544 | 1463 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #12 | 1375 | 1493 | 1481 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #22 | 1525 | 1556 | 1361 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #9 | 1413 | 1557 | 1550 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #19 | 1541 | 1575 | 1401 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #10 | 1475 | 1567 | 1525 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #11 | 1492 | 1551 | 1481 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #7 | 1528 | 1591 | 1530 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #20 | 1455 | 1484 | 1421 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #16 | 1480 | 1512 | 1474 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #7 | 1495 | 1670 | 1577 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #1 | 1548 | 1684 | 1684 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #11 | 1564 | 1610 | 1519 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #3 | 1384 | 1617 | 1576 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #23 | 1464 | 1569 | 1370 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #18 | 1476 | 1501 | 1449 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #12 | 1481 | 1551 | 1475 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Leyton Orient | L Burton 33.2% · draw 31.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Exeter | W Burton 53.7% · draw 26.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Peterboro | L Burton 33.7% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs AFC Wimbledon | W Burton 42.9% · draw 30.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Mansfield | L Burton 26.8% · draw 29.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Barnsley | W Burton 37.1% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Blackpool | L Burton 34.1% · draw 31.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Bradford | L Burton 30.5% · draw 30.1% | W ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Reading | W Burton 37.9% · draw 31.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Northampton | L Burton 33.0% · draw 31.3% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/burton">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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