League One 2026-2027: Cambridge vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cambridge

Home Team
45%
VS

AFC Wimbledon

Away Team
24%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.8
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Cambridge

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cambridge
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.8 Cambridge
Defense +2.5 AFC Wimbledon
Attack +1.7 Cambridge
Results & dominance +0.6 Cambridge

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Cambridge. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
AFC Wimbledon defense +1.8 Over
Cambridge defense +1.6 Under
Cambridge attack & chance creation +1.4 Under
AFC Wimbledon attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bradford 7 5 0 2 7 4 3 15
2 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
3 Plymouth 7 4 1 2 14 10 4 13
4 Huddersfield 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cambridge 7 3 3 1 12 10 2 12
6 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
7 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
8 Reading 6 3 1 2 14 7 7 10
9 Stockport 7 3 1 3 16 10 6 10
10 Leyton Orient 7 3 1 3 13 9 4 10
11 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
12 Burton 7 2 3 2 12 12 0 9
13 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
14 Wycombe 7 2 3 2 11 14 -3 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 7 1 2 4 4 12 -8 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Cambridge D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Oxford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Reading (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Burton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bradford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Huddersfield (Goals: 1 - 2)

AFC Wimbledon D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bromley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Burton (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wigan (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cambridge

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

AFC Wimbledon

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cambridge a 45% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and AFC Wimbledon at 24%. Cambridge are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 47% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cambridge arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWDWL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 0 clean sheets. AFC Wimbledon arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWWLW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 4 with 4 clean sheets. In the table Cambridge sit 5th with 12 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +2, while AFC Wimbledon are 7th with 11 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Cambridge 1 point clear of their opponent. Cambridge average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while AFC Wimbledon average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cambridge), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (2.8 points toward Cambridge), defense (2.5 points toward AFC Wimbledon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cambridge
Goals in last 5 matches
AFC Wimbledon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Cambridge matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, AFC Wimbledon matches 1.8. Both teams to score comes in at 47%, no goal for at least one side at 53%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and AFC Wimbledon defense pulls toward Over by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cambridge
Corners in last 5 matches
AFC Wimbledon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cambridge
Shots in last 5 matches
AFC Wimbledon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cambridge wins by X goals. Negative = AFC Wimbledon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cambridge vs AFC Wimbledon with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cambridge vs AFC Wimbledon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Cambridge. The spread model gives 28% to a Cambridge win by two goals or more and 37% to any AFC Wimbledon win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Cambridge win (45%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 23.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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