Cambridge
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 24 in League Two 82 pts · 22W–16D–8L · GD +33
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Cambridge?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cambridge's results were 6.6% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Cambridge | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.9% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #6 | 1518 | 1667 | 1608 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #21 | 1388 | 1427 | 1383 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #18 | 1464 | 1500 | 1403 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #19 | 1516 | 1526 | 1434 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #13 | 1480 | 1539 | 1480 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #5 | 1484 | 1609 | 1562 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #19 | 1432 | 1499 | 1448 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #21 | 1499 | 1499 | 1407 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #11 | 1491 | 1527 | 1509 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #10 | 1545 | 1580 | 1509 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #7 | 1450 | 1564 | 1561 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #21 | 1514 | 1530 | 1404 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Crewe | W Cambridge 48.4% · draw 26.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Barrow | W Cambridge 85.8% · draw 10.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Grimsby | W Cambridge 46.6% · draw 29.8% | L ✗ |
| Apr 16, 2026 | at Bromley | W Cambridge 35.8% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Notts County | W Cambridge 50.1% · draw 29.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Cheltenham | W Cambridge 54.6% · draw 23.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Swindon | W Cambridge 57.7% · draw 25.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Barnet | W Cambridge 37.2% · draw 30.3% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Salford | W Cambridge 50.5% · draw 28.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Walsall | W Cambridge 46.8% · draw 27.3% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cambridge">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cambridge">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>