AFC Wimbledon
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #19 of 24 in League One 53 pts · 15W–8D–23L · GD -21
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is AFC Wimbledon?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, AFC Wimbledon's results were 0.4% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | AFC Wimbledon | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.3% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #22 | 1482 | 1591 | 1376 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #10 | 1506 | 1621 | 1513 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #8 | 1375 | 1535 | 1486 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #24 | 1571 | 1571 | 1337 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #23 | 1490 | 1533 | 1301 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #18 | 1464 | 1502 | 1456 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #13 | 1466 | 1488 | 1454 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #12 | 1508 | 1515 | 1484 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #12 | 1442 | 1519 | 1483 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #16 | 1460 | 1581 | 1454 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #6 | 1442 | 1599 | 1564 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #17 | 1459 | 1532 | 1460 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #15 | 1489 | 1556 | 1446 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #16 | 1483 | 1525 | 1485 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #19 | 1479 | 1575 | 1445 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Huddersfield | L AFC Wimbledon 26.9% · draw 26.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Wigan | L AFC Wimbledon 15.8% · draw 22.0% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Plymouth | L AFC Wimbledon 27.6% · draw 28.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vs Stockport | L AFC Wimbledon 29.4% · draw 28.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Burton | L AFC Wimbledon 26.9% · draw 30.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Luton | L AFC Wimbledon 32.9% · draw 30.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Lincoln | L AFC Wimbledon 10.6% · draw 17.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Stockport | L AFC Wimbledon 20.8% · draw 26.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Peterboro | W AFC Wimbledon 37.9% · draw 30.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Leyton Orient | W AFC Wimbledon 42.4% · draw 30.2% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/afc-wimbledon">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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