AFC Wimbledon

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1432 · #19 League One 3W-3D-3L · 12 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #18 of 24 55.9 expected pts · currently 12 pts after 9 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 0.5%
Automatic promotion 0.2%
Promotion playoffs 2.2%
Relegation 22.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is AFC Wimbledon?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, AFC Wimbledon's results were 0.4% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketAFC WimbledonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 46.3% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.3% 53.2%
Both teams to score 48.8% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #19 1373 1441 1432
2025-26 League One #22 1482 1591 1376
2024-25 League Two #10 1506 1621 1513
2023-24 League Two #8 1375 1535 1486
2022-23 League Two #24 1571 1571 1337
2021-22 League One #23 1490 1533 1301
2020-21 League One #18 1464 1502 1456
2019-20 League One #13 1466 1488 1454
2018-19 League One #12 1508 1515 1484
2017-18 League One #12 1442 1519 1483
2016-17 League One #16 1460 1581 1454
2015-16 League Two #6 1442 1599 1564
2014-15 League Two #17 1459 1532 1460
2013-14 League Two #15 1489 1556 1446
2012-13 League Two #16 1483 1525 1485
2011-12 League Two #19 1479 1575 1445

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Plymouth L AFC Wimbledon 12.5% · draw 22.3% L ✓
Sep 26, 2026 at Cambridge L AFC Wimbledon 24.5% · draw 30.0% D ✗
Sep 17, 2026 vs Milton Keynes Dons W AFC Wimbledon 37.4% · draw 31.4% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Doncaster W AFC Wimbledon 37.2% · draw 31.7% W ✓

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