League One 2026-2027: Cambridge vs Blackpool Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cambridge

Home Team
49%
VS

Blackpool

Away Team
22%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 26.3
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Cambridge

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cambridge
Defense +5.5 Cambridge
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.5 Cambridge
Results & dominance +1.3 Blackpool

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 69% for Cambridge. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Blackpool defense +2.4 Over
Cambridge defense +1.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Over
Form & results +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16 11 5 16
2 Bradford 8 5 1 2 8 5 3 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14 7 7 15
4 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
5 Stockport 8 4 1 3 17 10 7 13
6 Cambridge 8 3 4 1 13 11 2 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17 10 7 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14 15 -1 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6 8 -2 12
10 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13 11 2 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13 16 -3 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 8 1 2 5 4 13 -9 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Cambridge D D W D W

  • Last Match: D vs AFC Wimbledon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Oxford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Reading (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Burton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bradford (Goals: 2 - 1)

Blackpool L D L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Plymouth (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bromley (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Reading (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barnsley (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Peterboro (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cambridge

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Blackpool

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cambridge a 49% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Blackpool at 22%. Cambridge are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 56% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cambridge arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDWDW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 6 with 0 clean sheets. Blackpool arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLLW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 11 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Cambridge sit 6th with 13 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +2, while Blackpool are 15th with 8 points and a level goal difference. That puts Cambridge 5 points clear of their opponent. Cambridge average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Blackpool average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cambridge), defense (5.5 points toward Cambridge), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (2.5 points toward Cambridge). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cambridge
Goals in last 5 matches
Blackpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Cambridge matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Blackpool matches 4.2. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, no goal for at least one side at 44%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Blackpool defense pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cambridge
Corners in last 5 matches
Blackpool
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 48% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cambridge
Shots in last 5 matches
Blackpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cambridge wins by X goals. Negative = Blackpool wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cambridge vs Blackpool with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cambridge vs Blackpool
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Cambridge. The spread model gives 30% to a Cambridge win by two goals or more and 34% to any Blackpool win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Cambridge win (49%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (56%). Expected totals: 10.5 corners and 26.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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