League One 2026-2027: Leicester vs Peterboro Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leicester

Home Team
69%
VS

Peterboro

Away Team
13%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 26.9
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Leicester

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Leicester
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.3 Leicester
Defense +6.0 Leicester
Attack +5.7 Leicester
Results & dominance +2.4 Leicester

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 84% for Leicester. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Peterboro defense +3.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.8 Over
Form & results +1.3 Over
Leicester defense +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16 11 5 16
2 Bradford 8 5 1 2 8 5 3 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14 7 7 15
4 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
5 Stockport 8 4 1 3 17 10 7 13
6 Cambridge 8 3 4 1 13 11 2 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17 10 7 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14 15 -1 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6 8 -2 12
10 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13 11 2 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13 16 -3 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 8 1 2 5 4 13 -9 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Leicester D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Barnsley (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Stockport (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Oxford (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Plymouth (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 0 - 0)

Peterboro L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Stockport (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Doncaster (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Stevenage (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leicester

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Peterboro

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Leicester a 69% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 18% and Peterboro at 13%. Leicester are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 51% of cases.

Match Analysis

Leicester arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWLWD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 8 with 2 clean sheets. Peterboro arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDLD from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Leicester sit 14th with 9 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -2, while Peterboro are 23rd with 5 points and a goal difference of -9. That puts Leicester 4 points clear of their opponent. Leicester average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Peterboro average 0.2 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Leicester), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.3 points toward Leicester), defense (6.0 points toward Leicester). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leicester
Goals in last 5 matches
Peterboro
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 44% and Over 2.5 at 56%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Leicester matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Peterboro matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 51%, no goal for at least one side at 49%. In the model's own attribution, Peterboro defense pulls toward Over by 3.0 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leicester
Corners in last 5 matches
Peterboro
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leicester
Shots in last 5 matches
Peterboro
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leicester wins by X goals. Negative = Peterboro wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leicester vs Peterboro with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leicester vs Peterboro
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of Leicester. The spread model gives 32% to a Leicester win by two goals or more and 32% to any Peterboro win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Leicester win (69%), Over 2.5 (56%), Goal (51%). Expected totals: 10.5 corners and 26.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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