Leicester
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #21 of 24 in Championship 52 pts · 12W–16D–18L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Leicester?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leicester's results were 17.2% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Leicester | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 34.2% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #21 | 1518 | 1575 | 1416 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #18 | 1498 | 1498 | 1307 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #4 | 1686 | 1767 | 1574 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #17 | 1498 | 1513 | 1398 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #9 | 1518 | 1540 | 1506 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #9 | 1534 | 1623 | 1523 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #11 | 1498 | 1672 | 1476 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #12 | 1482 | 1536 | 1495 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #14 | 1482 | 1570 | 1441 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #8 | 1482 | 1511 | 1482 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #1 | 1520 | 1705 | 1701 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #11 | 1498 | 1531 | 1502 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #1 | 1505 | 1734 | 1720 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #18 | 1532 | 1620 | 1479 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #9 | 1558 | 1566 | 1525 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #9 | 1544 | 1609 | 1543 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #4 | 1488 | 1599 | 1589 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #1 | 1518 | 1718 | 1692 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #21 | 1414 | 1500 | 1456 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #21 | 1484 | 1514 | 1422 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #11 | 1478 | 1535 | 1507 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Blackburn | W Leicester 35.3% · draw 31.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Millwall | W Leicester 47.9% · draw 28.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Hull | W Leicester 52.9% · draw 26.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Portsmouth | W Leicester 36.6% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Swansea | W Leicester 55.6% · draw 24.8% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Sheffield Wednesday | W Leicester 54.6% · draw 23.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Preston | W Leicester 44.6% · draw 30.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Watford | L Leicester 19.7% · draw 27.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs QPR | W Leicester 44.0% · draw 28.0% | L ✗ |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Bristol City | L Leicester 34.6% · draw 30.6% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/leicester">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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