Leicester

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1551 · #8 League One 2W-3D-3L · 9 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 24 62.6 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.5%
Promotion 4.1%
Automatic promotion 1.8%
Promotion playoffs 11.4%
Relegation 6.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Leicester?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leicester's results were 17.2% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketLeicesterLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 34.2% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 36.6% 51.0%
Both teams to score 51.2% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #8 1646 1646 1550
2025-26 Championship #21 1518 1575 1416
2024-25 Premier League #18 1498 1498 1307
2023-24 Championship #4 1686 1767 1574
2022-23 Premier League #17 1498 1513 1398
2021-22 Premier League #9 1518 1540 1506
2020-21 Premier League #9 1534 1623 1523
2019-20 Premier League #11 1498 1672 1476
2018-19 Premier League #12 1482 1536 1495
2017-18 Premier League #14 1482 1570 1441
2016-17 Premier League #8 1482 1511 1482
2015-16 Premier League #1 1520 1705 1701
2014-15 Premier League #11 1498 1531 1502
2013-14 Championship #1 1505 1734 1720
2012-13 Championship #18 1532 1620 1479
2011-12 Championship #9 1558 1566 1525
2010-11 Championship #9 1544 1609 1543
2009-10 Championship #4 1488 1599 1589
2008-09 League One #1 1518 1718 1692
2007-08 Championship #21 1414 1500 1456
2006-07 Championship #21 1484 1514 1422
2005-06 Championship #11 1478 1535 1507

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Peterboro W Leicester 68.8% · draw 18.3% L ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Barnsley W Leicester 34.9% · draw 30.5% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Stockport L Leicester 28.5% · draw 30.1% W ✗

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