League One 2026-2027: Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leyton Orient

Home Team
31%
VS

Plymouth

Away Team
41%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Plymouth

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Leyton Orient
Defense +6.0 Plymouth
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.6 Plymouth
Attack +4.3 Plymouth
Results & dominance +3.6 Plymouth

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Plymouth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Plymouth attack & chance creation +3.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 Over
Leyton Orient attack & chance creation +1.0 Under
Leyton Orient defense +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bradford 7 5 0 2 7 4 3 15
2 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
3 Stockport 8 4 1 3 17 10 7 13
4 Plymouth 8 4 1 3 14 11 3 13
5 Cambridge 8 3 4 1 13 11 2 13
6 Huddersfield 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
7 Burton 8 3 3 2 13 12 1 12
8 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6 8 -2 12
9 Reading 7 3 2 2 16 9 7 11
10 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
11 Leyton Orient 7 3 1 3 13 9 4 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13 16 -3 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 8 1 2 5 4 13 -9 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Leyton Orient W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Stevenage (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Wycombe (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Luton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bromley (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barnsley (Goals: 1 - 3)

Plymouth L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Burton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Blackpool (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Barnsley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leicester (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leyton Orient

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Plymouth

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.75
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Leyton Orient a 31% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Plymouth at 41%. This is a tight call, with Plymouth only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 57% of cases.

Match Analysis

Leyton Orient arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLDWL from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. Plymouth arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWWWL from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Leyton Orient sit 11th with 10 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +4, while Plymouth are 4th with 13 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts Plymouth 3 points clear of their opponent. Leyton Orient average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Plymouth average 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Leyton Orient), defense (6.0 points toward Plymouth), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.6 points toward Plymouth). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leyton Orient
Goals in last 5 matches
Plymouth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Leyton Orient matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Plymouth matches 3.4. Both teams to score comes in at 57%, no goal for at least one side at 43%. In the model's own attribution, Plymouth attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.2 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leyton Orient
Corners in last 5 matches
Plymouth
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leyton Orient
Shots in last 5 matches
Plymouth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leyton Orient wins by X goals. Negative = Plymouth wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Plymouth. The spread model gives 18% to a Leyton Orient win by two goals or more and 50% to any Plymouth win. A Plymouth win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Plymouth win (41%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (57%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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