Leyton Orient

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1443 · #17 League One 3W-2D-4L · 11 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #16 of 24 57.9 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 9 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 1.1%
Automatic promotion 0.4%
Promotion playoffs 4.4%
Relegation 15.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Leyton Orient?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leyton Orient's results were 0.4% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketLeyton OrientLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.9% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 61.0% 53.2%
Both teams to score 58.5% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #17 1412 1459 1443
2025-26 League One #19 1478 1525 1420
2024-25 League One #5 1458 1614 1607
2023-24 League One #14 1430 1584 1490
2022-23 League Two #2 1504 1666 1628
2021-22 League Two #14 1466 1573 1483
2020-21 League Two #17 1506 1556 1450
2019-20 League Two #15 1366 1471 1471
2016-17 League Two #24 1506 1517 1292
2015-16 League Two #13 1612 1666 1511
2014-15 League One #20 1497 1536 1429
2013-14 League One #7 1576 1682 1544
2012-13 League One #5 1396 1565 1559
2011-12 League One #22 1522 1573 1388
2010-11 League One #7 1415 1637 1555
2009-10 League One #19 1528 1528 1438
2008-09 League One #13 1453 1558 1498
2007-08 League One #20 1492 1576 1411
2006-07 League One #19 1476 1530 1441
2005-06 League Two #3 1518 1626 1626

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Bradford L Leyton Orient 17.1% · draw 26.7% D ✗
Oct 03, 2026 vs Plymouth L Leyton Orient 30.9% · draw 28.5% L ✓
Sep 19, 2026 vs Stevenage W Leyton Orient 35.6% · draw 31.0% W ✓
Sep 12, 2026 vs Wycombe W Leyton Orient 39.3% · draw 28.9% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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