League One 2026-2027: Notts County vs Oxford Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Notts County

Home Team
39%
VS

Oxford

Away Team
30%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Notts County

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Notts County
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +9.6 Oxford
Defense +3.9 Notts County
Results & dominance +2.0 Notts County

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Notts County. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Oxford defense +2.4 Over
Oxford attack & chance creation +1.9 Over
Notts County defense +1.6 Under
Form & results +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16 11 5 16
2 Bradford 8 5 1 2 8 5 3 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14 7 7 15
4 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
5 Stockport 8 4 1 3 17 10 7 13
6 Cambridge 8 3 4 1 13 11 2 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17 10 7 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14 15 -1 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6 8 -2 12
10 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13 11 2 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13 16 -3 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 8 1 2 5 4 13 -9 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Notts County L L D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Reading (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bradford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Huddersfield (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Doncaster (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Burton (Goals: 2 - 1)

Oxford D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Cambridge (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Burton (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leicester (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Huddersfield (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Stevenage (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Notts County

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Oxford

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Notts County a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Oxford at 30%. This is a tight call, with Notts County only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Notts County arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDDW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 0 clean sheets. Oxford arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWWLW from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Notts County sit 20th with 7 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -2, while Oxford are 10th with 11 points and a goal difference of +6. That puts Oxford 4 points clear of their opponent. Notts County average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Oxford average 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Notts County), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (9.6 points toward Oxford), defense (3.9 points toward Notts County). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Notts County
Goals in last 5 matches
Oxford
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Notts County matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Oxford matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Oxford defense pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Notts County
Corners in last 5 matches
Oxford
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Notts County
Shots in last 5 matches
Oxford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Notts County wins by X goals. Negative = Oxford wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Notts County vs Oxford with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Notts County vs Oxford
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.0 goals in favour of Notts County. The spread model gives 23% to a Notts County win by two goals or more and 44% to any Oxford win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Notts County win (39%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 24.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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