Oxford
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 24 76.7 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #23 of 24 in Championship 47 pts · 11W-14D-21L · GD -14
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Oxford?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Oxford's results were 1.0% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Oxford | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.3% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League One | #2 | 1544 | 1609 | 1609 |
| 2025-26 | Championship | #18 | 1471 | 1489 | 1437 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #13 | 1526 | 1526 | 1489 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #8 | 1394 | 1601 | 1562 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #22 | 1508 | 1548 | 1389 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #11 | 1567 | 1636 | 1535 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #5 | 1547 | 1594 | 1583 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #5 | 1547 | 1614 | 1598 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #6 | 1469 | 1575 | 1555 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #14 | 1582 | 1594 | 1477 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #6 | 1496 | 1580 | 1564 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #4 | 1556 | 1649 | 1635 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #6 | 1409 | 1572 | 1572 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #22 | 1563 | 1622 | 1413 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #8 | 1517 | 1569 | 1540 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #14 | 1470 | 1606 | 1480 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #12 | 1420 | 1545 | 1486 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #24 | 1502 | 1563 | 1393 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Notts County | L Oxford 29.8% · draw 31.2% | W ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Cambridge | W Oxford 39.5% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/oxford">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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