Oxford

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1549 · #5 League One 1W-1D-1L · 4 pts In line Updated Sep 02, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #7 of 24 66.6 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 3 matches

League title 3.7%
Promotion 15.0%
Automatic promotion 8.5%
Promotion playoffs 25.1%
Relegation 4.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Oxford?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Oxford's results were 1.0% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketOxfordLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 46.3% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 63.4% 51.0%
Both teams to score 48.8% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #5 1544 1573 1549
2025-26 Championship #18 1471 1489 1437
2024-25 Championship #13 1526 1526 1489
2023-24 League One #8 1394 1601 1562
2022-23 League One #22 1508 1548 1389
2021-22 League One #11 1567 1636 1535
2020-21 League One #5 1547 1594 1583
2019-20 League One #5 1547 1614 1598
2018-19 League One #6 1469 1575 1555
2017-18 League One #14 1582 1594 1477
2016-17 League One #6 1496 1580 1564
2015-16 League Two #4 1556 1649 1635
2014-15 League Two #6 1409 1572 1572
2013-14 League Two #22 1563 1622 1413
2012-13 League Two #8 1517 1569 1540
2011-12 League Two #14 1470 1606 1480
2010-11 League Two #12 1420 1545 1486
2005-06 League Two #24 1502 1563 1393

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 at Millwall L Oxford 16.7% · draw 25.0% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Sheffield Wednesday W Oxford 85.4% · draw 9.7% W ✓
Apr 21, 2026 vs Wrexham W Oxford 34.7% · draw 31.7% L ✗
Apr 18, 2026 at Derby L Oxford 23.7% · draw 28.8% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Watford L Oxford 31.6% · draw 30.4% W ✗
Apr 06, 2026 at Portsmouth L Oxford 18.0% · draw 25.3% D ✗
Apr 03, 2026 vs Hull W Oxford 35.4% · draw 32.4% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 at Southampton L Oxford 8.9% · draw 17.3% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Charlton W Oxford 44.3% · draw 30.5% D ✗
Mar 11, 2026 vs Blackburn L Oxford 32.9% · draw 31.8% W ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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