Notts County

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1399 · #23 League One 1W-4D-3L · 7 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #19 of 24 53.1 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.2%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion playoffs 1.3%
Relegation 35.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Notts County?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 40 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Notts County's results were 5.7% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketNotts CountyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 60.0% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 47.5% 52.1%
Both teams to score 50.0% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #23 1406 1451 1399
2025-26 League Two #9 1470 1632 1560
2024-25 League Two #13 1461 1614 1487
2023-24 League Two #16 1403 1562 1448
2018-19 League Two #22 1501 1501 1404
2017-18 League Two #8 1477 1650 1534
2016-17 League Two #12 1401 1535 1499
2015-16 League Two #19 1628 1628 1395
2014-15 League One #23 1512 1594 1374
2013-14 League One #11 1487 1509 1509
2012-13 League One #10 1578 1598 1506
2011-12 League One #5 1463 1586 1574
2010-11 League One #22 1471 1533 1408
2009-10 League Two #1 1424 1718 1698
2008-09 League Two #23 1431 1488 1366
2007-08 League Two #16 1467 1499 1432
2006-07 League Two #16 1439 1562 1454
2005-06 League Two #22 1502 1577 1415

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Oxford W Notts County 38.9% · draw 31.2% L ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Reading L Notts County 18.5% · draw 25.1% L ✓
Sep 12, 2026 vs Bradford W Notts County 36.4% · draw 31.6% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/notts-county">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/league_one"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="League One title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/notts-county">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets