Notts County
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 24 in League Two 80 pts · 24W–8D–14L · GD +22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Notts County?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 40 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Notts County's results were 5.7% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Notts County | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 60.0% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #9 | 1470 | 1632 | 1560 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #13 | 1461 | 1614 | 1487 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #16 | 1403 | 1562 | 1448 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #22 | 1501 | 1501 | 1404 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #8 | 1477 | 1650 | 1534 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #12 | 1401 | 1535 | 1499 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #19 | 1628 | 1628 | 1395 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #23 | 1512 | 1594 | 1374 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #11 | 1487 | 1509 | 1509 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #10 | 1578 | 1598 | 1506 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #5 | 1463 | 1586 | 1574 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #22 | 1471 | 1533 | 1408 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #1 | 1424 | 1718 | 1698 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #23 | 1431 | 1488 | 1366 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #16 | 1467 | 1499 | 1432 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #16 | 1439 | 1562 | 1454 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #22 | 1502 | 1577 | 1415 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Bristol Rvs | W Notts County 42.1% · draw 30.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Colchester | L Notts County 28.0% · draw 31.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Barnet | W Notts County 37.5% · draw 31.1% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Cambridge | L Notts County 20.9% · draw 29.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Newport County | W Notts County 76.6% · draw 15.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Salford | L Notts County 33.3% · draw 31.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Harrogate | W Notts County 55.4% · draw 23.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | at Oldham | W Notts County 35.0% · draw 31.4% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Cheltenham | W Notts County 66.4% · draw 21.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Accrington | W Notts County 41.2% · draw 29.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/notts-county">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/notts-county">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>