League One 2026-2027: Oxford vs Cambridge Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oxford

Home Team
39%
VS

Cambridge

Away Team
29%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Oxford

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Oxford
Defense +3.5 Cambridge
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Oxford
Results & dominance +1.9 Cambridge
Attack +0.7 Cambridge

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Oxford. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Oxford attack & chance creation +3.0 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Form & results +1.5 Under
Cambridge defense +0.9 Over
Oxford defense +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 6 4 1 1 13 6 7 13
2 Huddersfield 6 3 3 0 10 4 6 12
3 Bradford 6 4 0 2 6 4 2 12
4 Cambridge 6 3 2 1 11 9 2 11
5 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
6 Oxford 5 3 1 1 12 6 6 10
7 Plymouth 6 3 1 2 10 8 2 10
8 Stockport 6 3 0 3 16 10 6 9
9 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
10 Blackpool 6 2 2 2 11 9 2 8
11 Burton 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
13 Leicester 6 2 2 2 8 10 -2 8
14 Reading 5 2 1 2 12 7 5 7
15 Leyton Orient 6 2 1 3 12 9 3 7
16 Notts County 6 1 4 1 7 7 0 7
17 Mansfield 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
18 Barnsley 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
19 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
20 Wycombe 6 1 3 2 10 14 -4 6
21 Peterboro 6 1 2 3 4 10 -6 5
22 Bromley 6 1 2 3 6 17 -11 5
23 Wigan 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
24 Doncaster 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Oxford W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Burton (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Leicester (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Huddersfield (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Stevenage (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 2 - 2)

Cambridge W D W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Reading (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Burton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bradford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Huddersfield (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bromley (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oxford

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Cambridge

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Oxford a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Cambridge at 29%. This is a tight call, with Oxford only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 54% of cases.

Match Analysis

Oxford arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWLWD from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Cambridge arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDWLD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Oxford sit 6th with 10 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +6, while Cambridge are 4th with 11 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Cambridge 1 point clear of their opponent. Oxford average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Cambridge average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Oxford), defense (3.5 points toward Cambridge), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (2.0 points toward Oxford). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oxford
Goals in last 5 matches
Cambridge
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Oxford matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Cambridge matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 54%, no goal for at least one side at 46%. In the model's own attribution, Oxford attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.0 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oxford
Corners in last 5 matches
Cambridge
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oxford
Shots in last 5 matches
Cambridge
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oxford wins by X goals. Negative = Cambridge wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oxford vs Cambridge with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oxford vs Cambridge
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Oxford. The spread model gives 26% to a Oxford win by two goals or more and 39% to any Cambridge win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Oxford win (39%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (54%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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