League One 2026-2027: Peterboro vs Doncaster Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Peterboro

Home Team
36%
VS

Doncaster

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Peterboro

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Peterboro
Results & dominance +3.6 Doncaster
Attack +1.6 Doncaster
Defense +1.5 Doncaster

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Peterboro. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Doncaster attack & chance creation +1.4 Over
Form & results +1.1 Over
Doncaster defense +1.1 Over
Peterboro attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 6 4 1 1 13 6 7 13
2 Huddersfield 6 3 3 0 10 4 6 12
3 Bradford 6 4 0 2 6 4 2 12
4 Cambridge 6 3 2 1 11 9 2 11
5 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
6 Oxford 5 3 1 1 12 6 6 10
7 Plymouth 6 3 1 2 10 8 2 10
8 Stockport 6 3 0 3 16 10 6 9
9 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
10 Blackpool 6 2 2 2 11 9 2 8
11 Burton 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
13 Leicester 6 2 2 2 8 10 -2 8
14 Reading 5 2 1 2 12 7 5 7
15 Leyton Orient 6 2 1 3 12 9 3 7
16 Notts County 6 1 4 1 7 7 0 7
17 Mansfield 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
18 Barnsley 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
19 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
20 Wycombe 6 1 3 2 10 14 -4 6
21 Peterboro 6 1 2 3 4 10 -6 5
22 Bromley 6 1 2 3 6 17 -11 5
23 Wigan 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
24 Doncaster 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Peterboro D L D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Stevenage (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Blackpool (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mansfield (Goals: 2 - 1)

Doncaster L L D D D

  • Last Match: L vs AFC Wimbledon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Plymouth (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Notts County (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Stevenage (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Barnsley (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Peterboro

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Doncaster

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Peterboro a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Doncaster at 32%. This is a tight call, with Peterboro only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Peterboro arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDLW from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Doncaster arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDDD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Peterboro sit 21st with 5 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -6, while Doncaster are 24th with 3 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Peterboro 2 points clear of their opponent. Peterboro average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Doncaster average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Peterboro), results & dominance (3.6 points toward Doncaster), attack (1.6 points toward Doncaster). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Peterboro
Goals in last 5 matches
Doncaster
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Peterboro matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Doncaster matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Doncaster attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 1.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Peterboro
Corners in last 5 matches
Doncaster
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Peterboro
Shots in last 5 matches
Doncaster
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Peterboro wins by X goals. Negative = Doncaster wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Peterboro vs Doncaster with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Peterboro vs Doncaster
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Doncaster. The spread model gives 21% to a Peterboro win by two goals or more and 46% to any Doncaster win. A Doncaster win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Peterboro win (36%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 25.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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