Doncaster
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 24 in League One 60 pts · 17W–9D–20L · GD -19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Doncaster?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 40 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Doncaster's results were 0.9% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Doncaster | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 52.5% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #12 | 1518 | 1577 | 1508 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #1 | 1636 | 1653 | 1653 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #3 | 1370 | 1663 | 1658 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #23 | 1506 | 1598 | 1360 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #21 | 1398 | 1408 | 1384 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #21 | 1537 | 1647 | 1405 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #8 | 1519 | 1579 | 1553 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #8 | 1508 | 1562 | 1529 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #17 | 1392 | 1541 | 1465 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #11 | 1490 | 1682 | 1505 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #22 | 1472 | 1526 | 1367 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #15 | 1589 | 1589 | 1470 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #21 | 1351 | 1482 | 1377 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #2 | 1576 | 1637 | 1570 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #24 | 1375 | 1435 | 1338 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #23 | 1531 | 1553 | 1369 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #13 | 1517 | 1573 | 1504 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #12 | 1534 | 1595 | 1518 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #7 | 1480 | 1677 | 1559 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #14 | 1544 | 1629 | 1474 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #3 | 1502 | 1584 | 1584 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Peterboro | W Doncaster 36.1% · draw 30.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Stevenage | W Doncaster 37.3% · draw 32.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Lincoln | L Doncaster 31.1% · draw 29.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Northampton | W Doncaster 41.6% · draw 29.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Reading | W Doncaster 38.7% · draw 31.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Exeter | W Doncaster 36.5% · draw 30.9% | L ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Mansfield | W Doncaster 38.4% · draw 31.8% | L ✗ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Port Vale | W Doncaster 50.7% · draw 28.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Barnsley | L Doncaster 33.0% · draw 29.2% | W ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Bolton | L Doncaster 13.8% · draw 21.2% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/doncaster">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/doncaster">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>