League One 2026-2027: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Plymouth

Home Team
65%
VS

AFC Wimbledon

Away Team
12%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.7
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Plymouth

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Plymouth
Results & dominance +6.8 Plymouth
Attack +5.9 Plymouth
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.5 Plymouth
Defense +4.1 Plymouth

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 84% for Plymouth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
AFC Wimbledon defense +2.1 Over
Plymouth attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Plymouth defense +1.3 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16 11 5 16
2 Bradford 8 5 1 2 8 5 3 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14 7 7 15
4 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
5 Stockport 8 4 1 3 17 10 7 13
6 Cambridge 8 3 4 1 13 11 2 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17 10 7 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14 15 -1 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6 8 -2 12
10 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13 11 2 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13 16 -3 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 8 1 2 5 4 13 -9 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Plymouth W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Leyton Orient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Burton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Blackpool (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Barnsley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 3 - 2)

AFC Wimbledon D D W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Cambridge (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bromley (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Burton (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Plymouth

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

AFC Wimbledon

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Plymouth a 65% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 22% and AFC Wimbledon at 12%. Plymouth are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 48% of cases.

Match Analysis

Plymouth arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLWWW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. AFC Wimbledon arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDWWL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Plymouth sit 1st with 16 points from 9 games and a goal difference of +5, while AFC Wimbledon are 9th with 12 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Plymouth 4 points clear of their opponent. Plymouth average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while AFC Wimbledon average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Plymouth), results & dominance (6.8 points toward Plymouth), attack (5.9 points toward Plymouth). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Plymouth
Goals in last 5 matches
AFC Wimbledon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 51% and Over 2.5 at 49%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Plymouth matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, AFC Wimbledon matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 48%, no goal for at least one side at 52%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and AFC Wimbledon defense pulls toward Over by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Plymouth
Corners in last 5 matches
AFC Wimbledon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Plymouth
Shots in last 5 matches
AFC Wimbledon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Plymouth wins by X goals. Negative = AFC Wimbledon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of Plymouth. The spread model gives 33% to a Plymouth win by two goals or more and 31% to any AFC Wimbledon win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Plymouth win (65%), Under 2.5 (51%), No Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 25.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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