League One 2026-2027: Plymouth vs Barnsley Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Plymouth

Home Team
41%
VS

Barnsley

Away Team
29%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Plymouth

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Plymouth
Results & dominance +2.5 Barnsley
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.7 Plymouth
Defense +1.6 Barnsley

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Plymouth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Plymouth defense +1.8 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.8 Over
Barnsley attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Barnsley defense +1.3 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 5 4 0 1 13 6 7 12
2 Huddersfield 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
3 Stockport 5 3 0 2 13 6 7 9
4 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
5 Bradford 5 3 0 2 5 4 1 9
6 Burton 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
7 Cambridge 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
8 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
9 Reading 4 2 1 1 11 5 6 7
10 Leyton Orient 5 2 1 2 10 6 4 7
11 Oxford 4 2 1 1 9 6 3 7
12 Blackpool 5 2 1 2 9 7 2 7
13 Notts County 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
14 Plymouth 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Barnsley 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
16 AFC Wimbledon 5 2 1 2 4 7 -3 7
17 Mansfield 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
18 Leicester 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
19 Milton Keynes Dons 5 0 4 1 7 9 -2 4
20 Peterboro 5 1 1 3 3 9 -6 4
21 Bromley 5 1 1 3 4 15 -11 4
22 Doncaster 5 0 3 2 6 8 -2 3
23 Wycombe 5 0 3 2 7 12 -5 3
24 Wigan 5 1 0 4 5 11 -6 3

Recent Trends

Plymouth W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leicester (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bradford (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wycombe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stockport (Goals: 1 - 3)

Barnsley L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Stevenage (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Blackpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leyton Orient (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Doncaster (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bromley (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Plymouth

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Barnsley

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Plymouth a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Barnsley at 29%. This is a tight call, with Plymouth only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Plymouth arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWDL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Barnsley arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWWDL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Plymouth sit 14th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -1, while Barnsley are 15th with 7 points and a goal difference of -2. The two sides are level on points. Plymouth average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Barnsley average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Plymouth), results & dominance (2.5 points toward Barnsley), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.7 points toward Plymouth). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Plymouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Barnsley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Plymouth matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Barnsley matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Plymouth defense pulls toward Under by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Plymouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Barnsley
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Plymouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Barnsley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Plymouth wins by X goals. Negative = Barnsley wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Plymouth vs Barnsley with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Plymouth vs Barnsley
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Plymouth. The spread model gives 24% to a Plymouth win by two goals or more and 43% to any Barnsley win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Plymouth win (41%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 25.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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