Barnsley

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1425 · #20 League One 2W-2D-4L · 8 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #20 of 24 52.9 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.2%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion playoffs 0.9%
Relegation 37.5%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Barnsley?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barnsley's results were 0.6% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketBarnsleyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.9% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.7% 53.2%
Both teams to score 58.5% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #20 1408 1477 1425
2025-26 League One #18 1533 1565 1432
2024-25 League One #16 1472 1575 1436
2023-24 League One #12 1582 1661 1501
2022-23 League One #5 1605 1728 1597
2021-22 Championship #24 1569 1569 1304
2020-21 Championship #4 1486 1662 1585
2019-20 Championship #11 1455 1521 1521
2018-19 League One #3 1613 1694 1650
2017-18 Championship #23 1440 1487 1393
2016-17 Championship #19 1402 1554 1446
2015-16 League One #4 1504 1625 1625
2014-15 League One #10 1524 1578 1501
2013-14 Championship #20 1464 1467 1393
2012-13 Championship #13 1402 1504 1498
2011-12 Championship #23 1473 1531 1343
2010-11 Championship #17 1420 1511 1459
2009-10 Championship #21 1486 1552 1422
2008-09 Championship #17 1451 1521 1479
2007-08 Championship #20 1418 1539 1457
2006-07 Championship #17 1466 1521 1441
2005-06 League One #5 1520 1599 1578

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Stockport L Barnsley 15.0% · draw 22.1% L ✓
Sep 19, 2026 vs Leicester L Barnsley 34.7% · draw 30.5% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Plymouth L Barnsley 28.5% · draw 30.9% L ✓

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