League One 2026-2027: Plymouth vs Burton Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Plymouth

Home Team
58%
VS

Burton

Away Team
17%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Plymouth

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Plymouth
Attack +5.6 Plymouth
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.9 Plymouth
Results & dominance +2.8 Plymouth
Defense +2.4 Plymouth

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 77% for Plymouth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Burton defense +1.7 Over
Burton attack & chance creation +1.6 Under
Plymouth attack & chance creation +1.6 Under
Plymouth defense +1.5 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bradford 7 5 0 2 7 4 3 15
2 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
3 Plymouth 7 4 1 2 14 10 4 13
4 Huddersfield 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cambridge 7 3 3 1 12 10 2 12
6 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
7 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
8 Reading 6 3 1 2 14 7 7 10
9 Stockport 7 3 1 3 16 10 6 10
10 Leyton Orient 7 3 1 3 13 9 4 10
11 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
12 Burton 7 2 3 2 12 12 0 9
13 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
14 Wycombe 7 2 3 2 11 14 -3 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 7 1 2 4 4 12 -8 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Plymouth W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Blackpool (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Barnsley (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Doncaster (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leicester (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bradford (Goals: 2 - 0)

Burton D L D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Mansfield (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oxford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cambridge (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs AFC Wimbledon (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Notts County (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Plymouth

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Burton

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Plymouth a 58% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 25% and Burton at 17%. Plymouth are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Plymouth arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWWLW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. Burton arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDWL from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Plymouth sit 3rd with 13 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +4, while Burton are 12th with 9 points and a level goal difference. That puts Plymouth 4 points clear of their opponent. Plymouth average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Burton average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Plymouth), attack (5.6 points toward Plymouth), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.9 points toward Plymouth). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Plymouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Burton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Plymouth matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Burton matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Burton defense pulls toward Over by 1.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Plymouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Burton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Plymouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Burton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Plymouth wins by X goals. Negative = Burton wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Plymouth vs Burton with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Plymouth vs Burton
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.7 goals in favour of Plymouth. The spread model gives 32% to a Plymouth win by two goals or more and 32% to any Burton win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Plymouth win (58%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 24.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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