League One 2026-2027: Stevenage vs Wigan Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Stevenage

Home Team
45%
VS

Wigan

Away Team
25%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Stevenage

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Stevenage
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.5 Stevenage
Results & dominance +2.7 Wigan
Attack +1.8 Wigan

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Stevenage. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Stevenage attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Stevenage defense +0.9 Under
Wigan defense +0.8 Over
Form & results +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16 11 5 16
2 Bradford 8 5 1 2 8 5 3 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14 7 7 15
4 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
5 Stockport 8 4 1 3 17 10 7 13
6 Cambridge 8 3 4 1 13 11 2 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17 10 7 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14 15 -1 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6 8 -2 12
10 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13 11 2 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13 16 -3 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 8 1 2 5 4 13 -9 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Stevenage L W W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Leyton Orient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Luton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Barnsley (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Peterboro (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Doncaster (Goals: 2 - 2)

Wigan L D L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Wycombe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Stockport (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs AFC Wimbledon (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stevenage

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Wigan

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Stevenage a 45% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Wigan at 25%. Stevenage are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 45% of cases.

Match Analysis

Stevenage arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWDD from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Wigan arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLWL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Stevenage sit 13th with 9 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +3, while Wigan are 24th with 4 points and a goal difference of -7. That puts Stevenage 5 points clear of their opponent. Stevenage average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Wigan average 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Stevenage), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (6.5 points toward Stevenage), results & dominance (2.7 points toward Wigan). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stevenage
Goals in last 5 matches
Wigan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Stevenage matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Wigan matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 45%, no goal for at least one side at 55%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Stevenage attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stevenage
Corners in last 5 matches
Wigan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stevenage
Shots in last 5 matches
Wigan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Stevenage wins by X goals. Negative = Wigan wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Stevenage vs Wigan with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Stevenage vs Wigan
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Stevenage. The spread model gives 25% to a Stevenage win by two goals or more and 41% to any Wigan win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Stevenage win (45%), Under 2.5 (55%), No Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 23.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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