Wigan

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1405 · #23 League One 1W-0D-3L · 3 pts In line Updated Sep 02, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #20 of 24 53.6 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 4 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 0.5%
Automatic promotion 0.2%
Promotion playoffs 2.3%
Relegation 40.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Wigan?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Wigan's results were 0.2% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketWiganLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 46.3% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 58.5% 53.2%
Both teams to score 58.5% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #23 1431 1431 1405
2025-26 League One #17 1520 1530 1459
2024-25 League One #11 1527 1551 1487
2023-24 League One #6 1622 1656 1577
2022-23 Championship #20 1563 1597 1415
2021-22 League One #4 1457 1677 1621
2020-21 League One #17 1610 1616 1462
2019-20 Championship #6 1519 1592 1584
2018-19 Championship #14 1442 1491 1491
2017-18 League One #2 1625 1718 1686
2016-17 Championship #23 1390 1446 1391
2015-16 League One #3 1478 1699 1627
2014-15 Championship #24 1526 1526 1378
2013-14 Championship #12 1534 1659 1534

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 at Stevenage L Wigan 32.1% · draw 31.2% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs AFC Wimbledon W Wigan 62.1% · draw 22.0% L ✗
Apr 19, 2026 at Port Vale W Wigan 41.0% · draw 30.0% D ✗
Apr 14, 2026 vs Rotherham W Wigan 53.4% · draw 25.3% W ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Mansfield W Wigan 37.4% · draw 31.4% W ✓
Apr 06, 2026 at Northampton W Wigan 39.0% · draw 29.1% W ✓
Apr 02, 2026 vs Leyton Orient W Wigan 41.4% · draw 30.8% D ✗
Mar 28, 2026 at Reading L Wigan 33.7% · draw 30.8% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 vs Exeter W Wigan 50.8% · draw 28.1% W ✓
Mar 17, 2026 at Barnsley L Wigan 29.9% · draw 28.6% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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