Stevenage
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 24 in League One 75 pts · 21W–12D–13L · GD +3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Stevenage?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Stevenage's results were 1.8% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Stevenage | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.7% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #6 | 1529 | 1614 | 1572 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #14 | 1493 | 1542 | 1444 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #15 | 1428 | 1619 | 1476 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #4 | 1496 | 1639 | 1587 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #19 | 1548 | 1586 | 1449 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #8 | 1362 | 1580 | 1544 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #24 | 1530 | 1530 | 1317 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #2 | 1448 | 1570 | 1570 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #18 | 1476 | 1545 | 1442 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #16 | 1453 | 1621 | 1472 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #16 | 1523 | 1554 | 1464 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #7 | 1551 | 1592 | 1556 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #23 | 1364 | 1459 | 1368 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #25 | 1582 | 1650 | 1358 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #4 | 1500 | 1636 | 1608 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #6 | 1497 | 1625 | 1552 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Wigan | W Stevenage 36.7% · draw 31.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Doncaster | L Stevenage 30.5% · draw 32.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Barnsley | W Stevenage 42.5% · draw 31.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Lincoln | L Stevenage 27.5% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Bolton | L Stevenage 19.4% · draw 27.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Bradford | L Stevenage 26.0% · draw 29.8% | W ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Blackpool | W Stevenage 61.5% · draw 24.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Rotherham | W Stevenage 44.3% · draw 28.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Reading | W Stevenage 52.7% · draw 28.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Plymouth | L Stevenage 32.6% · draw 31.3% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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