League One 2026-2027: Stockport vs Leicester Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Stockport

Home Team
41%
VS

Leicester

Away Team
29%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Stockport

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Stockport
Results & dominance +2.1 Leicester
Attack +1.7 Stockport
Defense +0.7 Leicester

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Stockport. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Stockport attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.4 Over
Leicester defense +0.9 Under
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 5 4 0 1 13 6 7 12
2 Huddersfield 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
3 Stockport 5 3 0 2 13 6 7 9
4 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
5 Bradford 5 3 0 2 5 4 1 9
6 Burton 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
7 Cambridge 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
8 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
9 Reading 4 2 1 1 11 5 6 7
10 Leyton Orient 5 2 1 2 10 6 4 7
11 Oxford 4 2 1 1 9 6 3 7
12 Blackpool 5 2 1 2 9 7 2 7
13 Notts County 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
14 Plymouth 5 2 1 2 7 8 -1 7
15 Barnsley 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
16 AFC Wimbledon 5 2 1 2 4 7 -3 7
17 Mansfield 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
18 Leicester 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3 5
19 Milton Keynes Dons 5 0 4 1 7 9 -2 4
20 Peterboro 5 1 1 3 3 9 -6 4
21 Bromley 5 1 1 3 4 15 -11 4
22 Doncaster 5 0 3 2 6 8 -2 3
23 Wycombe 5 0 3 2 7 12 -5 3
24 Wigan 5 1 0 4 5 11 -6 3

Recent Trends

Stockport W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Wigan (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Luton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wycombe (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Blackpool (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Plymouth (Goals: 3 - 1)

Leicester L W D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Oxford (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Plymouth (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Burton (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Notts County (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stockport

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Leicester

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Stockport a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Leicester at 29%. This is a tight call, with Stockport only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Stockport arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWLW from most recent), scoring 13 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Leicester arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Stockport sit 3rd with 9 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +7, while Leicester are 18th with 5 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Stockport 4 points clear of their opponent. Stockport average 3.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Leicester average 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Stockport), results & dominance (2.1 points toward Leicester), attack (1.7 points toward Stockport). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stockport
Goals in last 5 matches
Leicester
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Stockport matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Leicester matches 2.2. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Stockport attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 1.8 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stockport
Corners in last 5 matches
Leicester
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stockport
Shots in last 5 matches
Leicester
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Stockport wins by X goals. Negative = Leicester wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Stockport vs Leicester with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Stockport vs Leicester
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Stockport. The spread model gives 24% to a Stockport win by two goals or more and 42% to any Leicester win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Stockport win (41%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 25.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel