League One 2026-2027: Stockport vs Peterboro Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Stockport

Home Team
72%
VS

Peterboro

Away Team
11%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Stockport

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Stockport
Defense +7.4 Stockport
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.1 Stockport
Attack +6.5 Stockport
Results & dominance +5.0 Stockport

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 86% for Stockport. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Stockport attack & chance creation +3.0 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +2.7 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Peterboro defense +2.2 Over
Stockport defense +2.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bradford 7 5 0 2 7 4 3 15
2 Sheffield Weds 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14
3 Plymouth 7 4 1 2 14 10 4 13
4 Huddersfield 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cambridge 7 3 3 1 12 10 2 12
6 Oxford 6 3 2 1 13 7 6 11
7 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
8 Reading 6 3 1 2 14 7 7 10
9 Stockport 7 3 1 3 16 10 6 10
10 Leyton Orient 7 3 1 3 13 9 4 10
11 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11 8 3 9
12 Burton 7 2 3 2 12 12 0 9
13 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
14 Wycombe 7 2 3 2 11 14 -3 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13 13 0 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10 13 -3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7 12 -5 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8 18 -10 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7 9 -2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8 9 -1 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
23 Peterboro 7 1 2 4 4 12 -8 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5 12 -7 4

Recent Trends

Stockport D L W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leicester (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wigan (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Luton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wycombe (Goals: 5 - 1)

Peterboro L D L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Doncaster (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Stevenage (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Blackpool (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stockport

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.33
Clean Sheets 2

Peterboro

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Stockport a 72% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 17% and Peterboro at 11%. Stockport are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Stockport arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWLW from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. Peterboro arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 9 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Stockport sit 9th with 10 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +6, while Peterboro are 23rd with 5 points and a goal difference of -8. That puts Stockport 5 points clear of their opponent. Stockport average 3.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Peterboro average 0.3 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Stockport), defense (7.4 points toward Stockport), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.1 points toward Stockport). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stockport
Goals in last 5 matches
Peterboro
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 45% and Over 2.5 at 55%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Stockport matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Peterboro matches 2.2. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, Stockport attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.0 points and rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) pulls toward Over by 2.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stockport
Corners in last 5 matches
Peterboro
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stockport
Shots in last 5 matches
Peterboro
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Stockport wins by X goals. Negative = Peterboro wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Stockport vs Peterboro with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Stockport vs Peterboro
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of Stockport. The spread model gives 32% to a Stockport win by two goals or more and 31% to any Peterboro win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Stockport win (72%), Over 2.5 (55%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 25.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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