League One 2026-2027: Wigan vs Wycombe Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wigan

Home Team
39%
VS

Wycombe

Away Team
31%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: -0.0

Why the Model Leans Wigan

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Wigan
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.5 Wycombe
Attack +1.2 Wycombe

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Wigan. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Wycombe defense +2.4 Over
Wycombe attack & chance creation +1.6 Over
Wigan attack & chance creation +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 6 4 1 1 13 6 7 13
2 Huddersfield 6 3 3 0 10 4 6 12
3 Bradford 6 4 0 2 6 4 2 12
4 Cambridge 6 3 2 1 11 9 2 11
5 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 5 7 -2 11
6 Oxford 5 3 1 1 12 6 6 10
7 Plymouth 6 3 1 2 10 8 2 10
8 Stockport 6 3 0 3 16 10 6 9
9 Stevenage 6 2 3 1 11 7 4 9
10 Blackpool 6 2 2 2 11 9 2 8
11 Burton 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Luton 6 2 2 2 12 13 -1 8
13 Leicester 6 2 2 2 8 10 -2 8
14 Reading 5 2 1 2 12 7 5 7
15 Leyton Orient 6 2 1 3 12 9 3 7
16 Notts County 6 1 4 1 7 7 0 7
17 Mansfield 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
18 Barnsley 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
19 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8 10 -2 6
20 Wycombe 6 1 3 2 10 14 -4 6
21 Peterboro 6 1 2 3 4 10 -6 5
22 Bromley 6 1 2 3 6 17 -11 5
23 Wigan 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
24 Doncaster 6 0 3 3 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Wigan D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stockport (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs AFC Wimbledon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leyton Orient (Goals: 0 - 2)

Wycombe W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Leyton Orient (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milton Keynes Dons (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sheffield Weds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stockport (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Plymouth (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wigan

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.33
Clean Sheets 1

Wycombe

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Wigan a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Wycombe at 31%. This is a tight call, with Wigan only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 57% of cases.

Match Analysis

Wigan arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWLL from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Wycombe arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLLD from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 13 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Wigan sit 23rd with 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -6, while Wycombe are 20th with 6 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Wycombe 2 points clear of their opponent. Wigan average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Wycombe average 1.7 scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Wigan), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.5 points toward Wycombe), attack (1.2 points toward Wycombe). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wigan
Goals in last 5 matches
Wycombe
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Wigan matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Wycombe matches 4.4. Both teams to score comes in at 57%, no goal for at least one side at 43%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Wycombe defense pulls toward Over by 2.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wigan
Corners in last 5 matches
Wycombe
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wigan
Shots in last 5 matches
Wycombe
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wigan wins by X goals. Negative = Wycombe wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wigan vs Wycombe with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wigan vs Wycombe
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is level. The spread model gives 22% to a Wigan win by two goals or more and 44% to any Wycombe win. A Wycombe win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Wigan win (39%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (57%). Expected totals: 10.5 corners and 24.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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