League Two 2026-2027: Cheltenham vs Chesterfield Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cheltenham

Home Team
31%
VS

Chesterfield

Away Team
40%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.4
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Chesterfield

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Cheltenham
Results & dominance +6.5 Chesterfield
Defense +6.1 Chesterfield
Attack +2.9 Chesterfield
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.8 Chesterfield

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Chesterfield. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Cheltenham attack & chance creation +3.5 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Over
Form & results +0.7 Under
Cheltenham defense +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10 4 6 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11 6 5 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14 11 3 12
6 Bristol Rvs 7 4 0 3 12 11 1 12
7 York 7 3 2 2 13 10 3 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10 8 2 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7 5 2 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9 7 2 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8 9 -1 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8 11 -3 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8 9 -1 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7 10 -3 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5 11 -6 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 10 11 -1 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4 5 -1 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10 13 -3 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Cheltenham D W D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Colchester (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Crawley Town (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Grimsby (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs York (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 2 - 2)

Chesterfield W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs York (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rotherham (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cheltenham

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Chesterfield

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Cheltenham a 31% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Chesterfield at 40%. This is a tight call, with Chesterfield only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Cheltenham arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWDWD from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Chesterfield arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWDDL from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Cheltenham sit 5th with 12 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +3, while Chesterfield are 8th with 11 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Cheltenham 1 point clear of their opponent. Cheltenham average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Chesterfield average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Cheltenham), results & dominance (6.5 points toward Chesterfield), defense (6.1 points toward Chesterfield). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cheltenham
Goals in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Cheltenham matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Chesterfield matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, Cheltenham attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 3.5 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cheltenham
Corners in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cheltenham
Shots in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cheltenham wins by X goals. Negative = Chesterfield wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cheltenham vs Chesterfield with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Chesterfield. The spread model gives 18% to a Cheltenham win by two goals or more and 50% to any Chesterfield win. A Chesterfield win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Chesterfield win (40%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 24.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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