Cheltenham
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 24 in League Two 52 pts · 14W–10D–22L · GD -26
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Cheltenham?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cheltenham's results were 6.7% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Cheltenham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.9% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #18 | 1482 | 1526 | 1429 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #14 | 1577 | 1577 | 1480 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #20 | 1473 | 1483 | 1390 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #13 | 1432 | 1501 | 1492 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #17 | 1435 | 1505 | 1447 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #3 | 1566 | 1640 | 1587 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #1 | 1472 | 1641 | 1637 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #14 | 1399 | 1538 | 1507 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #23 | 1428 | 1516 | 1407 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #18 | 1378 | 1459 | 1437 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #23 | 1492 | 1550 | 1345 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #17 | 1562 | 1599 | 1444 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #2 | 1543 | 1593 | 1581 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #8 | 1388 | 1661 | 1530 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #23 | 1462 | 1527 | 1372 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #18 | 1574 | 1598 | 1446 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #21 | 1452 | 1480 | 1412 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #16 | 1534 | 1534 | 1455 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #9 | 1529 | 1543 | 1524 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #5 | 1518 | 1579 | 1579 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Colchester | L Cheltenham 28.9% · draw 29.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Bristol Rvs | L Cheltenham 14.6% · draw 23.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Tranmere | W Cheltenham 43.3% · draw 28.3% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Newport County | W Cheltenham 42.0% · draw 29.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Gillingham | L Cheltenham 33.5% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Walsall | L Cheltenham 17.7% · draw 24.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Cambridge | L Cheltenham 21.7% · draw 23.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Chesterfield | L Cheltenham 13.6% · draw 19.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Notts County | L Cheltenham 12.2% · draw 21.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Crewe | W Cheltenham 33.9% · draw 32.2% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cheltenham">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cheltenham">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>