Cheltenham

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1477 · #15 League Two 4W-3D-3L · 15 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #11 of 24 63.0 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.5%
Promotion 9.3%
Automatic promotion 5.3%
Promotion playoffs 21.0%
Relegation 2.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Cheltenham?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cheltenham's results were 6.7% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketCheltenhamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.9% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.3% 52.1%
Both teams to score 39.0% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #15 1469 1534 1477
2025-26 League Two #18 1482 1526 1429
2024-25 League Two #14 1577 1577 1480
2023-24 League One #20 1473 1483 1390
2022-23 League One #13 1432 1501 1492
2021-22 League One #17 1435 1505 1447
2020-21 League Two #3 1566 1640 1587
2019-20 League Two #1 1472 1641 1637
2018-19 League Two #14 1399 1538 1507
2017-18 League Two #23 1428 1516 1407
2016-17 League Two #18 1378 1459 1437
2014-15 League Two #23 1492 1550 1345
2013-14 League Two #17 1562 1599 1444
2012-13 League Two #2 1543 1593 1581
2011-12 League Two #8 1388 1661 1530
2010-11 League Two #23 1462 1527 1372
2009-10 League Two #18 1574 1598 1446
2008-09 League One #21 1452 1480 1412
2007-08 League One #16 1534 1534 1455
2006-07 League One #9 1529 1543 1524
2005-06 League Two #5 1518 1579 1579

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Salford L Cheltenham 25.7% · draw 26.8% L ✓
Oct 03, 2026 at Accrington L Cheltenham 28.4% · draw 30.4% L ✓
Sep 26, 2026 vs Chesterfield L Cheltenham 30.7% · draw 29.8% W ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Colchester L Cheltenham 21.2% · draw 28.0% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Crawley Town L Cheltenham 30.6% · draw 31.6% W ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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