Chesterfield
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 24 in League Two 79 pts · 21W–16D–9L · GD +15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Chesterfield?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Chesterfield's results were 13.5% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Chesterfield | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 29.3% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #3 | 1518 | 1623 | 1623 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #3 | 1382 | 1566 | 1566 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #24 | 1567 | 1567 | 1353 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #24 | 1463 | 1517 | 1338 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #16 | 1551 | 1571 | 1449 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #4 | 1468 | 1563 | 1541 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #2 | 1595 | 1687 | 1638 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #4 | 1532 | 1579 | 1576 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #20 | 1388 | 1451 | 1412 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #5 | 1487 | 1640 | 1573 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #13 | 1438 | 1601 | 1469 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #15 | 1529 | 1579 | 1459 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #10 | 1500 | 1600 | 1494 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #21 | 1440 | 1485 | 1377 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #23 | 1533 | 1586 | 1376 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Swindon | W Chesterfield 42.3% · draw 29.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Crewe | W Chesterfield 55.9% · draw 25.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Fleetwood Town | W Chesterfield 35.9% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Grimsby | W Chesterfield 35.5% · draw 31.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Tranmere | W Chesterfield 71.6% · draw 17.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Barrow | W Chesterfield 50.1% · draw 26.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Cheltenham | W Chesterfield 67.1% · draw 19.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Accrington | W Chesterfield 44.5% · draw 28.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Oldham | W Chesterfield 44.4% · draw 30.0% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Notts County | L Chesterfield 25.3% · draw 30.4% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/chesterfield">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/chesterfield">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>