League Two 2026-2027: Chesterfield vs Tranmere Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Chesterfield

Home Team
54%
VS

Tranmere

Away Team
20%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 26.5
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Chesterfield

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Chesterfield
Results & dominance +4.8 Chesterfield
Attack +3.3 Chesterfield
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.4 Chesterfield
Defense +2.3 Chesterfield

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 73% for Chesterfield. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Chesterfield attack & chance creation +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Tranmere defense +1.3 Over
Form & results +1.3 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Cheltenham 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
3 Bristol Rvs 8 5 0 3 13 11 2 15
4 York 8 4 2 2 16 10 6 14
5 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11 5 6 14
6 Grimsby 8 3 4 1 12 8 4 13
7 Salford 8 4 1 3 12 10 2 13
8 Gillingham 8 3 3 2 11 9 2 12
9 Crewe 8 2 6 0 8 6 2 12
10 Tranmere 8 2 5 1 10 8 2 11
11 Chesterfield 8 3 2 3 11 10 1 11
12 Swindon 8 3 2 3 9 12 -3 11
13 Rotherham 8 2 4 2 11 11 0 10
14 Fleetwood Town 8 2 4 2 9 9 0 10
15 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10 12 -2 10
16 Rochdale 8 3 1 4 9 11 -2 10
17 Newport County 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
18 Shrewsbury 8 2 2 4 7 13 -6 8
19 Accrington 8 1 4 3 11 14 -3 7
20 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
21 Exeter 8 1 3 4 4 6 -2 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Chesterfield L W W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Cheltenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs York (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Tranmere D D L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Walsall (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Exeter (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Gillingham (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Rotherham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chesterfield

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.25
Clean Sheets 1

Tranmere

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.75
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.25
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Chesterfield a 54% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Tranmere at 20%. Chesterfield are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Chesterfield arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWDD from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Tranmere arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DDLWD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Chesterfield sit 11th with 11 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +1, while Tranmere are 10th with 11 points and a goal difference of +2. The two sides are level on points. Chesterfield average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five home games, while Tranmere average 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Chesterfield), results & dominance (4.8 points toward Chesterfield), attack (3.3 points toward Chesterfield). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chesterfield
Goals in last 5 matches
Tranmere
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Chesterfield matches produced 3.2 goals on average over their last 5, Tranmere matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, Chesterfield attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chesterfield
Corners in last 5 matches
Tranmere
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chesterfield
Shots in last 5 matches
Tranmere
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.5 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Chesterfield wins by X goals. Negative = Tranmere wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Chesterfield vs Tranmere with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Chesterfield vs Tranmere
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Chesterfield. The spread model gives 31% to a Chesterfield win by two goals or more and 34% to any Tranmere win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Chesterfield win (54%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.5 corners and 26.5 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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