Tranmere
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #21 of 24 in League Two 41 pts · 10W–11D–25L · GD -25
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Tranmere?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Tranmere's results were 2.7% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Tranmere | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.7% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #23 | 1502 | 1551 | 1340 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #12 | 1465 | 1524 | 1488 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #14 | 1425 | 1549 | 1460 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #16 | 1509 | 1596 | 1444 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #8 | 1538 | 1620 | 1557 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #10 | 1518 | 1612 | 1532 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #18 | 1375 | 1438 | 1423 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #9 | 1369 | 1600 | 1521 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #24 | 1502 | 1525 | 1328 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #22 | 1403 | 1479 | 1371 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #24 | 1494 | 1646 | 1392 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #14 | 1478 | 1550 | 1474 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #15 | 1463 | 1520 | 1456 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #11 | 1530 | 1543 | 1495 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #5 | 1470 | 1606 | 1580 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #13 | 1460 | 1582 | 1486 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #13 | 1474 | 1568 | 1485 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #21 | 1482 | 1538 | 1444 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Grimsby | L Tranmere 25.6% · draw 26.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Milton Keynes Dons | L Tranmere 9.2% · draw 16.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Cheltenham | L Tranmere 28.4% · draw 28.3% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Bristol Rvs | L Tranmere 32.4% · draw 31.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Chesterfield | L Tranmere 11.3% · draw 17.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Colchester | L Tranmere 31.0% · draw 29.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Shrewsbury | L Tranmere 31.7% · draw 29.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Swindon | L Tranmere 28.5% · draw 27.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Harrogate | W Tranmere 45.6% · draw 29.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Fleetwood Town | L Tranmere 19.2% · draw 24.1% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/tranmere">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/tranmere">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>