Tranmere

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1418 · #23 League Two 2W-6D-2L · 12 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #22 of 24 53.5 expected pts · currently 12 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.9%
Automatic promotion 0.4%
Promotion playoffs 3.0%
Relegation 20.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Tranmere?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Tranmere's results were 2.7% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketTranmereLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.7% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.8% 52.1%
Both teams to score 56.1% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #23 1395 1443 1418
2025-26 League Two #23 1502 1551 1340
2024-25 League Two #12 1465 1524 1488
2023-24 League Two #14 1425 1549 1460
2022-23 League Two #16 1509 1596 1444
2021-22 League Two #8 1538 1620 1557
2020-21 League Two #10 1518 1612 1532
2019-20 League One #18 1375 1438 1423
2018-19 League Two #9 1369 1600 1521
2014-15 League Two #24 1502 1525 1328
2013-14 League One #22 1403 1479 1371
2012-13 League One #24 1494 1646 1392
2011-12 League One #14 1478 1550 1474
2010-11 League One #15 1463 1520 1456
2009-10 League One #11 1530 1543 1495
2008-09 League One #5 1470 1606 1580
2007-08 League One #13 1460 1582 1486
2006-07 League One #13 1474 1568 1485
2005-06 League One #21 1482 1538 1444

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Rochdale W Tranmere 36.5% · draw 31.7% D ✗
Oct 03, 2026 at Chesterfield L Tranmere 19.7% · draw 26.0% L ✓
Sep 26, 2026 vs Walsall L Tranmere 33.4% · draw 30.6% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Exeter L Tranmere 28.2% · draw 31.2% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Gillingham L Tranmere 30.5% · draw 30.8% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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