League Two 2026-2027: Chesterfield vs York Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Chesterfield

Home Team
33%
VS

York

Away Team
36%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.8
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans York

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Chesterfield
Results & dominance +5.9 York
Attack +3.0 York
Defense +2.5 York
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 York

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for York. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

York attack & chance creation +3.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
York defense +1.5 Over
Chesterfield defense +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 6 3 3 0 14 9 5 12
2 Bristol Rvs 6 4 0 2 12 8 4 12
3 York 6 3 2 1 13 8 5 11
4 Cheltenham 6 3 2 1 13 10 3 11
5 Walsall 6 2 4 0 8 4 4 10
6 Grimsby 6 2 4 0 9 6 3 10
7 Fleetwood Town 6 2 4 0 7 4 3 10
8 Crewe 6 2 4 0 6 4 2 10
9 Swindon 6 3 1 2 8 10 -2 10
10 Tranmere 6 2 3 1 9 7 2 9
11 Gillingham 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
12 Chesterfield 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
13 Colchester 6 2 2 2 7 9 -2 8
14 Oldham 6 2 1 3 8 7 1 7
15 Salford 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
16 Rotherham 6 1 3 2 9 10 -1 6
17 Northampton 6 1 3 2 3 5 -2 6
18 Shrewsbury 6 2 0 4 4 10 -6 6
19 Newport County 6 1 2 3 10 11 -1 5
20 Exeter 6 1 2 3 4 5 -1 5
21 Accrington 6 1 2 3 10 13 -3 5
22 Port Vale 6 1 2 3 3 7 -4 5
23 Crawley Town 6 1 1 4 6 11 -5 4
24 Rochdale 6 1 1 4 5 10 -5 4

Recent Trends

Chesterfield W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rotherham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Salford (Goals: 1 - 0)

York W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cheltenham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Exeter (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Rotherham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chesterfield

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

York

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Chesterfield a 33% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and York at 36%. This is a tight call, with York only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 60% of cases.

Match Analysis

Chesterfield arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDDLW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. York arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLWD from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Chesterfield sit 12th with 8 points from 6 games and a level goal difference, while York are 3rd with 11 points and a goal difference of +5. That puts York 3 points clear of their opponent. Chesterfield average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while York average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Chesterfield), results & dominance (5.9 points toward York), attack (3.0 points toward York). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chesterfield
Goals in last 5 matches
York
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Chesterfield matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, York matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 60%, no goal for at least one side at 40%. In the model's own attribution, York attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.0 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chesterfield
Corners in last 5 matches
York
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chesterfield
Shots in last 5 matches
York
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Chesterfield wins by X goals. Negative = York wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Chesterfield vs York with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Chesterfield vs York
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of York. The spread model gives 21% to a Chesterfield win by two goals or more and 47% to any York win. A York win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: York win (36%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (60%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 26.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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