York
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #5 of 24 67.9 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 9 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is York?
Sample still small 2026-27 · 4 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, York's results were 16.3% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | York | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 50.0% | 35.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 61.1% |
| Both teams to score | 0.0% | 51.8% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League Two | #13 | 1428 | 1496 | 1493 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #22 | 1470 | 1471 | 1369 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #13 | 1618 | 1618 | 1481 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #1 | 1509 | 1649 | 1649 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #15 | 1476 | 1546 | 1486 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Northampton | W York 53.7% · draw 26.3% | D ✗ |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Gillingham | W York 56.5% · draw 26.3% | W ✓ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | at Chesterfield | W York 36.2% · draw 30.9% | L ✗ |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Swindon | W York 54.4% · draw 26.9% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/york">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/league_two"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="League Two title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/york">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>