League Two 2026-2027: Crawley Town vs Cheltenham Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Crawley Town

Home Team
38%
VS

Cheltenham

Away Team
31%
Draw: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Crawley Town

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Crawley Town
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.2 Cheltenham
Defense +2.1 Cheltenham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Crawley Town. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Cheltenham defense +1.5 Over
Form & results +1.3 Over
Crawley Town attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
Cheltenham attack & chance creation +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bristol Rvs 5 4 0 1 12 6 6 12
2 Swindon 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
3 Barnet 5 2 3 0 12 8 4 9
4 Tranmere 5 2 3 0 9 5 4 9
5 Walsall 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
6 Fleetwood Town 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
7 Crewe 5 2 3 0 5 3 2 9
8 Cheltenham 5 2 2 1 10 9 1 8
9 York 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
10 Oldham 5 2 1 2 7 5 2 7
11 Grimsby 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
12 Colchester 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
13 Gillingham 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Northampton 5 1 3 1 3 3 0 6
15 Salford 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
16 Exeter 5 1 2 2 4 4 0 5
17 Chesterfield 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
18 Rotherham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
19 Accrington 5 1 2 2 9 11 -2 5
20 Newport County 5 1 1 3 9 10 -1 4
21 Crawley Town 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
22 Rochdale 5 1 0 4 5 10 -5 3
23 Shrewsbury 5 1 0 4 2 10 -8 3
24 Port Vale 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2

Recent Trends

Crawley Town L D L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Accrington (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rochdale (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crewe (Goals: 0 - 1)

Cheltenham D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Grimsby (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs York (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Swindon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Rotherham (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crawley Town

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Cheltenham

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Crawley Town a 38% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 32% and Cheltenham at 31%. This is a tight call, with Crawley Town only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Crawley Town arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLWL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Cheltenham arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWDLW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 9 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Crawley Town sit 21st with 4 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -3, while Cheltenham are 8th with 8 points and a goal difference of +1. That puts Cheltenham 4 points clear of their opponent. Crawley Town average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Cheltenham average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Crawley Town), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (5.2 points toward Cheltenham), defense (2.1 points toward Cheltenham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crawley Town
Goals in last 5 matches
Cheltenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 48% and Over 2.5 at 52%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Crawley Town matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Cheltenham matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Cheltenham defense pulls toward Over by 1.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crawley Town
Corners in last 5 matches
Cheltenham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crawley Town
Shots in last 5 matches
Cheltenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Crawley Town wins by X goals. Negative = Cheltenham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Crawley Town. The spread model gives 23% to a Crawley Town win by two goals or more and 43% to any Cheltenham win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Crawley Town win (38%), Over 2.5 (52%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.5 corners and 25.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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