Crawley Town
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #24 of 24 46.6 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #22 of 24 in League Two 40 pts · 8W-16D-22L · GD -24
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Crawley Town?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Crawley Town's results were 1.6% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Crawley Town | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League Two | #24 | 1400 | 1431 | 1372 |
| 2025-26 | League Two | #20 | 1478 | 1478 | 1407 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #15 | 1454 | 1477 | 1444 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #7 | 1482 | 1601 | 1545 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #17 | 1462 | 1472 | 1443 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #16 | 1442 | 1555 | 1476 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #16 | 1512 | 1584 | 1457 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #8 | 1444 | 1535 | 1535 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #19 | 1482 | 1509 | 1449 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #17 | 1371 | 1576 | 1444 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #23 | 1398 | 1478 | 1361 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #24 | 1574 | 1574 | 1342 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #21 | 1498 | 1518 | 1407 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #14 | 1550 | 1564 | 1449 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #7 | 1520 | 1565 | 1544 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #4 | 1500 | 1671 | 1591 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Chesterfield | L Crawley Town 24.9% · draw 26.0% | D ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | at Grimsby | L Crawley Town 10.4% · draw 19.3% | L ✓ |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Cheltenham | W Crawley Town 37.8% · draw 31.6% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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