League Two 2026-2027: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Crawley Town

Home Team
25%
VS

Chesterfield

Away Team
49%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.9
Expected Spread: -0.8

Why the Model Leans Chesterfield

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Crawley Town
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.7 Chesterfield
Defense +7.2 Chesterfield
Results & dominance +5.7 Chesterfield
Attack +3.6 Chesterfield

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Chesterfield. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Chesterfield attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
Chesterfield defense +1.4 Under
Crawley Town defense +1.3 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13 10 3 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11 7 4 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16 14 2 15
5 Bristol Rvs 9 5 0 4 14 14 0 15
6 York 8 4 2 2 16 10 6 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11 5 6 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15 12 3 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13 10 3 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11 9 2 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10 11 -1 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12 12 0 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9 13 -4 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9 14 -5 11
15 Newport County 9 2 4 3 12 12 0 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13 14 -1 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11 12 -1 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9 10 -1 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10 12 -2 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5 6 -1 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Crawley Town L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Grimsby (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cheltenham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Accrington (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 0 - 2)

Chesterfield W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Tranmere (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cheltenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs York (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crawley Town

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 0

Chesterfield

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.25
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Crawley Town a 25% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Chesterfield at 49%. Chesterfield are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 58% of cases.

Match Analysis

Crawley Town arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. Chesterfield arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLWWD from most recent), scoring 12 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Crawley Town sit 24th with 4 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -7, while Chesterfield are 8th with 14 points and a goal difference of +3. That puts Chesterfield 10 points clear of their opponent. Crawley Town average 0.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Chesterfield average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Crawley Town), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (8.7 points toward Chesterfield), defense (7.2 points toward Chesterfield). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crawley Town
Goals in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Crawley Town matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Chesterfield matches 4.0. Both teams to score comes in at 58%, no goal for at least one side at 42%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Chesterfield attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crawley Town
Corners in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 46%, which leaves 54% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crawley Town
Shots in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Crawley Town wins by X goals. Negative = Chesterfield wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield with expected spread of -0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of Chesterfield. The spread model gives 13% to a Crawley Town win by two goals or more and 58% to any Chesterfield win. A Chesterfield win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Chesterfield win (49%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (58%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 26.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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