League Two 2026-2027: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fleetwood Town

Home Team
48%
VS

Rochdale

Away Team
23%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Fleetwood Town

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Fleetwood Town
Results & dominance +2.2 Fleetwood Town
Attack +2.0 Fleetwood Town
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.4 Fleetwood Town

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 68% for Fleetwood Town. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rochdale attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Rochdale defense +1.3 Over
Fleetwood Town attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
Fleetwood Town defense +1.1 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10 4 6 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11 6 5 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14 11 3 12
6 Bristol Rvs 7 4 0 3 12 11 1 12
7 York 7 3 2 2 13 10 3 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10 8 2 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7 5 2 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9 7 2 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8 9 -1 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8 11 -3 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8 9 -1 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7 10 -3 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5 11 -6 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 10 11 -1 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4 5 -1 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10 13 -3 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Fleetwood Town L D W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Barnet (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Newport County (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Oldham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Grimsby (Goals: 2 - 2)

Rochdale W D L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Walsall (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Colchester (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fleetwood Town

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.33
Clean Sheets 1

Rochdale

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Fleetwood Town a 48% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Rochdale at 23%. Fleetwood Town are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 46% of cases.

Match Analysis

Fleetwood Town arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LDWDD from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Rochdale arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDLWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 5 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Fleetwood Town sit 11th with 10 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +1, while Rochdale are 17th with 7 points and a goal difference of -3. That puts Fleetwood Town 3 points clear of their opponent. Fleetwood Town average 1.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Rochdale average 0.0 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Fleetwood Town), results & dominance (2.2 points toward Fleetwood Town), attack (2.0 points toward Fleetwood Town). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fleetwood Town
Goals in last 5 matches
Rochdale
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Fleetwood Town matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Rochdale matches 2.2. Both teams to score comes in at 46%, no goal for at least one side at 54%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Rochdale attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fleetwood Town
Corners in last 5 matches
Rochdale
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fleetwood Town
Shots in last 5 matches
Rochdale
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fleetwood Town wins by X goals. Negative = Rochdale wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Fleetwood Town. The spread model gives 29% to a Fleetwood Town win by two goals or more and 36% to any Rochdale win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Fleetwood Town win (48%), Under 2.5 (55%), No Goal (54%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 24.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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